Fundamentally Speaking
Joel Karlin DTN Contributing Analyst

Tuesday 05/19/15

Soybean Crop Conditions vs. Final Yields
Correlation coefficient between U.S. soybean crop conditions by week and the percent that the final yield deviates from the 1986-2014 trend.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 9:28AM CDT 05/19/15 by Joel Karlin | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Monday 05/18/15

Corn Crop Conditions vs. Final Yields
Correlation coefficient between U.S. corn crop conditions by week and the percent that the final yield deviates from the 1986-2014 trend[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 11:01AM CDT 05/18/15 by Joel Karlin | Post a Comment
Comments (1)
Historic very slow (too wet) or very fast (too dry) detrended planting pace has resulted in the lowest US corn yields as viewed from a percent of trend line yield. This year's planting pace has, from a historic point of view, removed the very low US yields from the picture. There is still a chance to see the CME print a mid $4.00 or better number but that chance has drop in half (our guess is currently one in 6 to 7 years) if planting pace has anything to do with US yield. One may want to think how that price level and multi-year corn sales would work - or not- for your operation. To us it seems there could be enough flex in the planted corn acres to keep the risk for high prices about the same whether or not a low yield materializes this year or not. (A low US yield/high price would result in more acres next year and visa versa.) The big risk is a new RFS standard. Every operation is different and has different abilities, needs and requirements. So it is provided here as food for thought. Freeport, IL
Posted by Freeport IL at 12:20PM CDT 05/18/15
 

Thursday 05/14/15

Stocks to Use Ratios vs. Avg Soy Prices
World and U.S. soybean stocks to use ratio for the past 25 years versus average spot futures price for each marketing year.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 8:49AM CDT 05/14/15 by Joel Karlin | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Wednesday 05/13/15

Stocks to Use Ratios vs. Avg Corn Price
World & U.S. corn stocks to use ratio for the past 25 years along with the average spot futures price for each marketing year.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 7:36AM CDT 05/13/15 by Joel Karlin | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Tuesday 05/12/15

Spring Wheat Planting Date Impact
Percent of the spring wheat planted by May 1 vs. the percent change in planted acreage.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 9:01AM CDT 05/12/15 by Joel Karlin | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Wednesday 05/06/15

Winter Wheat Conditions vs. Yield & Harvested/Planted Ratio
U.S. winter wheat conditions as of May 1 vs. the final harvested to planted ratio and the May winter wheat yield estimate as a percent of the 30 year trend.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 9:30AM CDT 05/06/15 by Joel Karlin | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Friday 05/01/15

USDA Soybean Yield Est. vs Planting
USDA's soybean yield estimates in bushels per acre (bpa) plotted vs. the percent of the U.S. soybean crop planted by June 1 and crop conditions as of July 1.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 7:31AM CDT 05/01/15 by Joel Karlin | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Thursday 04/30/15

USDA Corn Yield Est. vs. Plantings
USDA's yield estimates in bushels per acre (bpa) plotted vs. the percent of the U.S. corn crop planted by April 30 and May 30.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 9:09AM CDT 04/30/15 by Joel Karlin | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Wednesday 04/29/15

Dec 2015 vs. Dec 2010 Corn
Action in Dec 2015 corn and how it mirrors Dec 2010 activity[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 10:06AM CDT 04/29/15 by Joel Karlin | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Wednesday 04/22/15

Corn & Soybean Plantings by May 20th
Percent of the U.S. corn and soybean crop planted as of May 20 vs. the change in U.S. soybean planted acreage.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 9:39AM CDT 04/22/15 by Joel Karlin | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Friday 04/17/15

Accuracy of USDA Initial Ending Stocks Estimates
USDA change in its estimate for U.S. corn and soybean ending stocks from the first WASDE estimate given in May to the final one 18 months later the following November[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 7:50AM CDT 04/17/15 by Joel Karlin | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Wednesday 04/15/15

Lowest New Crop Soybean Sales in 5 Years
USDA export projection for new crop soybeans given at their annual February Ag Outlook Forum, their first 'official" projection contained in the May WASDE report in million bushels, and new crop sales as of the first week of April as a percent of that May WASDE export projection.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 9:57AM CDT 04/15/15 by Joel Karlin | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Monday 03/30/15

Prospective 2015 U.S. Soybean Yield
15, 20 and 25 year trends for U.S. soybean yields calculated three different ways[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 8:46AM CDT 03/30/15 by Joel Karlin | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Thursday 03/26/15

Possible 2015 U.S. Trend Yield for Corn
15, 20 and 25 year trends for U.S. corn yields calculated three different ways[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 10:34AM CDT 03/26/15 by Joel Karlin | Post a Comment
Comments (3)
Maybe the more important yield is the mid-point (median) of the yield distribution rather than average (mean) distribution/trend line yield. If the 15 year distribution of US yield has a trend line of 158.5, the mid-point is something like 160.7 or 2.2 bushels higher. The 20 year yield distribution has an average of 161.9, mid-point of 164.0 or some 2.1 bushels higher. The 25 year distribution has an average of 162.3, mid-point of 164.7 which is 2.4 bushels higher. The mid-point is where there is an equal chance of having a higher or lower outcome. The 15 year average has about a 60% chance of seeing yields higher than the average. The 20 and 25 year yield distributions have about a 62% chance of having yield higher than their average/trend line. Freeport, IL
Posted by Freeport IL at 8:40AM CDT 03/27/15
Your general premise still holds true. USDA's yield seems high. There looks to be a 70% to 85% chance of seeing US yields below 166.8. The percent chance depend on the yield distribution selected. Freeport, IL
Posted by Freeport IL at 9:05AM CDT 03/27/15
I attended a webinar (not DTN's) last month and raised the point that the past 7 year average yield for corn is approximately 153; and maybe something less than 160 would be more realistic than what the government is calling for. Especially where producers may be cutting back on fertilizer and plant population. My comment was dismissed as being "unrealistic." I still believe there's good reason to be bullish 2015 corn from current price levels.
Posted by John Giegler at 12:25PM CDT 04/14/15
 

Tuesday 03/24/15

Soybean Acreage Changes in Top States
Top corn states and change in acreage from March intentions to final in years from 2010 to 2014 with five year average.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 8:46AM CDT 03/24/15 by Joel Karlin | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
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