Fundamentally Speaking
Joel Karlin DTN Contributing Analyst

Friday 07/31/15

Late July Export Pace for Corn & Beans
New crop corn and soybean export sales as of the fourth week of July as a percent of the July USDA WASDE export projection.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 4:00PM CDT 07/31/15 by Joel Karlin | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Thursday 07/30/15

Slowing Chinese Feed Demand
Chinese feed consumption of key commodities corn and soybean meal are running at some of their slowest paces for years.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 9:34AM CDT 07/30/15 by Joel Karlin | Post a Comment
Comments (1)
The bullish optimism of continued dollar strength seems to be waning. This resist change in opinion may change the view of a potential drop in the Brazilian Real of 20%. A currency change of this level might bring short term opportunities for US farmers with very negative longer term results. This is one of your bearish stories. China is a very larger ship running at one half full. It will take a while for her to change direction. Argentina, Brazil, Russia and most of Europe are dead in the water. Their direction is assumed but unknown. The shell game seems to have us looking in the wrong place. Our guess is; "The pea is not under China." Freeport, IL
Posted by Freeport IL at 12:50PM CDT 07/30/15
 

Thursday 07/23/15

Week 29 Corn Crop Conditions, Yield Deviations
Corn crop conditions as of the 29th week of the year (the third week in July) vs. the percent that each state's corn yield has also deviated from the 1986-2014 trend.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 10:20AM CDT 07/23/15 by Joel Karlin | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Wednesday 07/22/15

Week 29 Corn Ratings vs. Final Yield Deviation
U.S. crop conditions as of week 29 (this week) vs. the percent that final national corn yields deviated from the 30 year trend.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 10:45AM CDT 07/22/15 by Joel Karlin | Post a Comment
Comments (1)
Ya whatever
Posted by Raymond Simpkins at 9:53PM CDT 07/22/15
 

Friday 07/17/15

Corn Crop Ratings vs. Yield Correlations
Correlation coefficient for corn crop ratings at the end of July, end of August and end of September vs. the percent that final corn yields deviated from the 1986-2014 trend.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 7:56AM CDT 07/17/15 by Joel Karlin | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Wednesday 07/15/15

June 2015 Rainfall for Top Corn, Soybean States
June 2015 precipitation in inches for the top 21 corn and soybean producing states, amount of precipitation last month as a percent of the 1950-2014 June rainfall average and the highest amount of June precipitation any of these states have had since 1950.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 9:54AM CDT 07/15/15 by Joel Karlin | Post a Comment
Comments (2)
We use a model based on Dec CME option values merged with WASDE estimates to develop a feel for US yield prospects versus current futures price. This model has a rather large error. The current environment points to a US harvested acre yield of 151 to 162 to support a $4.50 Dec CME price. One might call it; "Trend yield or below". Models by others tend to show current US yield at trend or higher. Our inclination is to agree with those models at this time. Profitable outcomes for our model - northwestern Illinois farm -with current conditions are dependent upon high pre-harvest sales and a mid-point or above relative farm yield or a relatively low cost structure. Crop insurance looks - this year and on the model farm - to be only a positive factor in the very low relative farm yields. (Many will find this statement totally untrue for their operations.) ARC county shows be a positive factor and should help add to income. (Some very high yielding counties, mainly in the western corn-belt may not find this to be true.) We still have a long way to go. Selling $4.50 corn on the board does not assure profits -at this time- for the Northwestern Illinois farm used in the model. The main point is lower US yield prospects appear to be needed (from the model) than currently projected to support current prices. Freeport, IL
Posted by Freeport IL at 10:08PM CDT 07/16/15
Chart is not very accurate, we had 6in. out of one storm alone here in Michigan. Your graph only shows 4in. for the month. Same with Ohio,there were areas that got more than 8in. out of same storm. If that is showing averages it don't mean much.
Posted by Raymond Simpkins at 10:11PM CDT 07/19/15
 

Friday 07/10/15

Early July Corn Ratings
IL, IN & OH corn crop ratings as of July 5th with final trends.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 7:21AM CDT 07/10/15 by Joel Karlin | Post a Comment
Comments (1)
I am sure there is a lot of Ill. Oh. and Ind. producers laughing at U.S.D.A. this morning.Good to excellent corn maybe 30-40 percent in all three states.I don't know how much of these crops you have ever seen but they do not recover. Nitrogen is gone,diseases set in,it don't root down and will soon blow over. Corn like what I seen for 1100 miles though the heart of the corn belt will be lucky to average 130 bu. Will see how far off I and U.S.D.A are. I don't think you can compare todays growers to 10-15 years ago either. Back then a guy might try to save a crop with extra inputs,but not now!Let crop insurance kick in.
Posted by Raymond Simpkins at 12:06PM CDT 07/10/15
 

Tuesday 07/07/15

Early July Corn & Bean Ratings Above Average
Corn and soybean crop conditions as of July 5th over the past 30 years.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 10:23AM CDT 07/07/15 by Joel Karlin | Post a Comment
Comments (3)
Really,are you kidding!!!You guys are living in a dream world,you need to get out of the office. USDA can stick their rating system. You brought up 2012 and I believe that year actual yields were off 21 bu. after harvest ,So how good is their rating? Bare corn fields don't yield well. Get in contact with growers in Ind. Oh.and Ill.and see what they have. We have very good corn in a small area but the beans suck. Someone needs to show me how corn conditions can improve in a week of heavy rain. The stunted yellow corn will never improve with nitrogen lost and roots standing in water. We've had corn like that before and it does not recover even with normal weather the rest of the season. I for one am going to wait to price this crop.
Posted by Raymond Simpkins at 4:57PM CDT 07/07/15
This years crop has a lot of problems, soybean growth is way behind average, corn fields have a lot of holes in them!
Posted by HARLEY DRAKE at 7:52AM CDT 07/09/15
I am with Raymond. Got unsold old crop and bin space to carry to next year. Can remember 95/96. Wet trending year but no prevent planting causing concern. Market and USDA thinks rain makes grain, however, the saying "Worry to death in a dry year, starve to death in a wet". Second year with bins in 95/96, harvest price, if I remember correctly, sub $3.00. Was not until the spring when low production became apparent. Sold 5.93 beans in Feb, 5.35 corn in May! Paid for bin twice! Only takes a couple of weeks of wet weather at the right time to cause big losses, had that last year. Wet here in Delaware.
Posted by Fred Stites at 2:45PM CDT 07/09/15
 

Monday 06/29/15

Corn Yields Can Hold Despite Heavy Rains
"Heavy" June rainfall in key Eastern Corn Belt states of IL, IN and OH since 1970 and percent in each of those years final corn deviated from the 1970-2014 trend.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 10:40AM CDT 06/29/15 by Joel Karlin | Post a Comment
Comments (10)
The biggest problem I see with this analysis is the assumption that all 7.62 inches were spread out over the entire month - or at a minimum over 3-4 larger storm systems. It appears the problems are coming from systems that are dropping 3+ inches at one shot. While those 3"+ storms nestle nicely into monthly averages, medium term based statistics cannot account for that damage. Our specific area is 129% of normal for the month of June - but we lost 5-6% of our acreage due to ponding in an two day period. 3 inches of rain one day and 2 the next. These ponds are now mostly dry, but the damage is already done. Go look for years that had over 5 inches in a week and cross reference that against trend yields and I suspect you'll find a different outcome.
Posted by JASON BODE at 12:05PM CDT 06/29/15
How about when you have 13 inches for the month of June?
Posted by RICHARD ECKERLEY at 2:39PM CDT 06/29/15
You may also want to consider that in many areas May was also as wet as June.
Posted by Unknown at 7:34AM CDT 06/30/15
They say that a picture speaks a thousand words. Anyone else think DTN should have a page where in growers could upload photos of their own corn and bean fields.
Posted by Richard Gvillo at 10:32AM CDT 06/30/15
There are significant areas in Oh, IN and Il that have received over 20 inches in June.
Posted by GLENN TROYER at 11:08AM CDT 06/30/15
Just drove from Michigan to Fort Worth Texas, Oh. Ind. Ill. yields are gone. Those states corn and bean crops will not recover. Lots of unplanted acres also. Got word from my son we got 5 in. On Saturday alone no beans sprayed and big weeds. You guys need to hit the roads and look,forget about the last ten year averages. Some of these places got more rain out of Bill than they have had in 10 years total. No trend-line this year guys.
Posted by Raymond Simpkins at 9:15AM CDT 07/01/15
Just drove from North Dakota to North Carolina and back, taking a different route on the return through Pennsylvania, then across northern Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois. (I went through Indianapolis and then east on the way out so I could see more crop) Crop looked good in VA and NC, but I would concur with Raymond on conditions in OH, IL, IN. Good looking fields are few and far between. I didn't see much of Illinois, but the crop conditions peaked in Central WI and then got steadily worse as I went south and east.
Posted by tman at 8:52AM CDT 07/02/15
it's not only the drowned out spots that are gone it's also the area around the spot that will be as big or bigger as time goes on
Posted by Wally frey at 1:30PM CDT 07/06/15
corn in Kankakee county is 40%dead or will be soon .crop ratings all good . what ever
Posted by DOUG FLAGEOLE at 7:53PM CDT 07/06/15
last year in central Mn we lived through heavy rain from April till the end of June, then the rain stopped till Sept, yields were terrible 60 to 120 corn beans 15 to 30. lot of land also not planted. Another problem those conditions produce besides rutting in fields is very tough tillage conditions. Lots of broken parts also fuel consumption was very high. Again CBOT or USDA crop ratings are so wrong, the usual tactic USDA uses for their almighty reports that controls the "markets" that producers have to live with.
Posted by DAVID/KEVIN GRUENHAGEN at 12:19AM CDT 07/07/15
 

Friday 06/26/15

New Crop U.S. Corn Export Sales
New crop corn sales as of the third week of June in million bushels and as a percent of the June WASDE projection.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 7:24AM CDT 06/26/15 by Joel Karlin | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Wednesday 06/24/15

World Oilseed Supplies at All-Time High
Global and foreign oilseed stocks at highest level ever and world oilseed stocks-to-use ratio at loftiest in history.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 10:30AM CDT 06/24/15 by Joel Karlin | Post a Comment
Comments (1)
End users look closer production close to usage. who thinks usda is right anyway?
Posted by andrew mohlman at 5:00PM CDT 06/24/15
 

Friday 06/19/15

New Crop Soybean Export Sales as of Mid-June
New crop soybean sales as of the second week in June in million bushels and those sales as a percent of the June new crop WASDE export projection.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 7:14AM CDT 06/19/15 by Joel Karlin | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Thursday 06/18/15

Effect of Heavy Spring Rains on KS & MO Soybean Yield
Combined May and June precipitation in inches from 1990 to 2014 and the percent that each state's final soybean yield deviated from the 30 year trend.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 1:17PM CDT 06/18/15 by Joel Karlin | Post a Comment
Comments (1)
Yesterday's crop progress report indicates 7.7 million acres of soybeans remain unplanted in the 18 states of the report. We subtracted the 4 year average of soybean acres planted after another crop (double cropped) from calculated remaining to be planted. This leaves 4.6 million acres of mono-crop soybeans to be planted. Those acres by the latest crop insurance final plant date in the state are: June 10 (440 thousand acres); Minnesota (75 thousand acres), Nebraska (255), North Dakota (58), South Dakota (52), June 15 (542); Iowa (505), Wisconsin (37), June 20 (848); Illinois (424), Indiana (191), Ohio (232), June 30 (2,829); Kansas (599), Missouri (2,230). Kansas and Missouri have four final plant dates within their state. In Kansas, 45% of the soybean acres are in counties with a June 25 final plant dated or later, if these year's acres are in a similar distribution as last year. There are about 15% of their acres with a June 30 date. Missouri has about 35% of their acres with a June 25 or latter final plant date and 8% after June 30. The bottom line is there is 2.1 million unplanted mono-crop soybean acres that are past the final insurance plant date. Folks can plant after the final plant date. The net outcomes of planting versus not change every year. Our models show a 10%-30% chance that planting will net more than not planting. As time passes beyond the final plant date and crop insurance coverage drops, the odds of a profitable outcome becomes less. In very general terms, when planting netted more than not planting, the yield of the planted crop needed to be below the trigger yield and the fall price needed to be higher than the spring. It was hard to be more profitable with a good crop - as strangle as that sounds. Freeport, IL
Posted by Freeport IL at 6:45PM CDT 06/23/15
 

Wednesday 06/10/15

Changing South American Crop Estimates
Change in combined Argentine and Brazilian corn and soybean production from the January to the June WASDE reports vs. the percent change in July corn and July soybean futures from January 1 to June 1.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 8:48AM CDT 06/10/15 by Joel Karlin | Post a Comment
Comments (3)
A moment of confusion results when a student is asked; "What year are you?" This confusion mostly occurs after promotion of one year and before the start of the next. The student is unsure what year to declare: the one he left or the one he is going in to. (For some of us there is no confusion, the answer for both situations is/was the same. There is/was no promotion.) Grain marketing years can cause a similar confusion. We generally refer to them as "old crop" and "new crop". An old soybean crop is the one we harvested in the fall and is currently being marketed (crushed into meal and oil or exported). The new crop of soybeans is the crop that will be planted or was planted this spring and be harvest this coming fall and marketed the majority of next year. The confusion occurs on two fronts. One is after harvest but before planting. The other is when one tries to make the World the same cropping year. The marketing year for US soybeans starts September 1 - just before harvest for most of us. So generally once the crop is harvested, it becomes "old" crop and the "new" crop will be planted in the coming spring. Argentina's soybean crop starts April 1. Brazil's soybean marketing year starts February 1. This again is generally just before harvest for them. This time of year Brazil's and Argentina's new crop production (2015-16 marketing year - planted this coming fall in the Southern Hemisphere) should/could/might not have much of anything to do with November 2015 soybean prices. Their production and use estimates are penciled in by USDA for later adjustment. (The 2015-16 marketing year, in Brazil, will start February of 2016 and end January of 2017. This crop will start to be planted in September of 2015.) If we wanted to get a feel for the level of US soybean production needed to see $10.00 November soybean prices again, we can use a simple model that only looks at US production. (Other times of the year Brazil and Argentina's production would be included.) A drop in US production by something like 70 million bushels might make that happen. That would be something less than a bushel per acre drop in US soybean yield, loss of something like 1.5 million harvested acres or a combination of the two. It should be noted that South American ending old crop stocks become new crop beginning stocks and does impact November 2015 prices. Some think USDA's ending South American old crop soybean stocks are 1.3 million metric ton too low. This would result in a US yield around 1.5 bushels lower than currently projected, a drop of something like 2.5 million harvested acres or a combination of the both for November 2015 soybean to see $10.00. Looking at USDAâ?™s crop progress, one can calculate there might be 1.7 million less acres of soybeans planted when compared to the 5 year average. That does not mean they will not get planted. If the June acreage report does not catch a change in acres the next report that has a chance is the September Wasde. By then, the prospects of the new soybean crop in South American will enhance or diminish any change in harvested acres that may have occurred. So the later we go into a marketing year for soybeans, the more influence the new crop in South America plays on price. These numbers are provided as a very general indication of production changes that might be needed and are not any expectation of future results. A good student always knows the year they are until they become confused and that can be any of us or then again maybe just me. Freeport, IL
Posted by Freeport IL at 9:49AM CDT 06/12/15
Dollar?
Posted by JOHN HUSTON at 1:26AM CDT 06/18/15
Dollar? The dollar! Oh the dollar! - It is mysterious but yet it works like other commodities on supply and demand but with a lot of manipulation of supply. The brain stretching exercise - at least for us - is the relationship between currencies and what those changes mean. China's currency is basically linked to the dollar. If soybeans trade in dollars, the amount the amount China pays for soybeans is not affected by currency changes, only changes in the price of soybeans. The amount we (US) receive is not affected by currency changes just changes in soybean prices. The amount received by Brazil and Argentina does change with currency changes and soybean price changes. The stronger the dollar is the more they receive in their local currency, assuming soybean price and basis stay the same. So to try to answer the question; "Dollar?" we will say; "Until currency changes between the US and Argentina and/or Brazil changes the production outlook in Brazil and/or Argentina, the dollar does not matter. That may change as we get closer to decision time (planting time) in South America. We are not totally convinced the dollar will be stronger when South American decisions are being made. So basically our assumption is they will continue on their current trend without regard to currency changes, at least in the short term outlook." Our short answer is; "What?".
Posted by Freeport IL at 11:13AM CDT 06/23/15
 

Monday 06/08/15

KS & MO Soybean Planting Change in Acreage
Soybean plantings in KS & MO as of May 31 from 1986 to this year vs. the change in planted acreage from the March intentions to the final figures given in the annual production report released in January.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 10:24AM CDT 06/08/15 by Joel Karlin | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
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Recent Blog Posts
  • Late July Export Pace for Corn & Beans
  • Slowing Chinese Feed Demand
  • Week 29 Corn Crop Conditions, Yield Deviations
  • Week 29 Corn Ratings vs. Final Yield Deviation
  • Corn Crop Ratings vs. Yield Correlations
  • June 2015 Rainfall for Top Corn, Soybean States
  • Early July Corn Ratings
  • Early July Corn & Bean Ratings Above Average
  • Corn Yields Can Hold Despite Heavy Rains
  • New Crop U.S. Corn Export Sales
  • World Oilseed Supplies at All-Time High
  • New Crop Soybean Export Sales as of Mid-June
  • Effect of Heavy Spring Rains on KS & MO Soybean Yield
  • Changing South American Crop Estimates
  • KS & MO Soybean Planting Change in Acreage
  • Soybean Oil's % of Soybean Crush
  • Soybean Crop Conditions vs. Final Yields
  • Corn Crop Conditions vs. Final Yields
  • Stocks to Use Ratios vs. Avg Soy Prices
  • Stocks to Use Ratios vs. Avg Corn Price