Fundamentally Speaking
Joel Karlin DTN Contributing Analyst

Tuesday 07/07/15

Early July Corn & Bean Ratings Above Average
Corn and soybean crop conditions as of July 5th over the past 30 years.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 10:23AM CDT 07/07/15 by Joel Karlin | Post a Comment
Comments (1)
Really,are you kidding!!!You guys are living in a dream world,you need to get out of the office. USDA can stick their rating system. You brought up 2012 and I believe that year actual yields were off 21 bu. after harvest ,So how good is their rating? Bare corn fields don't yield well. Get in contact with growers in Ind. Oh.and Ill.and see what they have. We have very good corn in a small area but the beans suck. Someone needs to show me how corn conditions can improve in a week of heavy rain. The stunted yellow corn will never improve with nitrogen lost and roots standing in water. We've had corn like that before and it does not recover even with normal weather the rest of the season. I for one am going to wait to price this crop.
Posted by Raymond Simpkins at 4:57PM CDT 07/07/15

Monday 06/29/15

Corn Yields Can Hold Despite Heavy Rains
"Heavy" June rainfall in key Eastern Corn Belt states of IL, IN and OH since 1970 and percent in each of those years final corn deviated from the 1970-2014 trend.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 10:40AM CDT 06/29/15 by Joel Karlin | Post a Comment
Comments (10)
The biggest problem I see with this analysis is the assumption that all 7.62 inches were spread out over the entire month - or at a minimum over 3-4 larger storm systems. It appears the problems are coming from systems that are dropping 3+ inches at one shot. While those 3"+ storms nestle nicely into monthly averages, medium term based statistics cannot account for that damage. Our specific area is 129% of normal for the month of June - but we lost 5-6% of our acreage due to ponding in an two day period. 3 inches of rain one day and 2 the next. These ponds are now mostly dry, but the damage is already done. Go look for years that had over 5 inches in a week and cross reference that against trend yields and I suspect you'll find a different outcome.
Posted by JASON BODE at 12:05PM CDT 06/29/15
How about when you have 13 inches for the month of June?
Posted by RICHARD ECKERLEY at 2:39PM CDT 06/29/15
You may also want to consider that in many areas May was also as wet as June.
Posted by Unknown at 7:34AM CDT 06/30/15
They say that a picture speaks a thousand words. Anyone else think DTN should have a page where in growers could upload photos of their own corn and bean fields.
Posted by Richard Gvillo at 10:32AM CDT 06/30/15
There are significant areas in Oh, IN and Il that have received over 20 inches in June.
Posted by GLENN TROYER at 11:08AM CDT 06/30/15
Just drove from Michigan to Fort Worth Texas, Oh. Ind. Ill. yields are gone. Those states corn and bean crops will not recover. Lots of unplanted acres also. Got word from my son we got 5 in. On Saturday alone no beans sprayed and big weeds. You guys need to hit the roads and look,forget about the last ten year averages. Some of these places got more rain out of Bill than they have had in 10 years total. No trend-line this year guys.
Posted by Raymond Simpkins at 9:15AM CDT 07/01/15
Just drove from North Dakota to North Carolina and back, taking a different route on the return through Pennsylvania, then across northern Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois. (I went through Indianapolis and then east on the way out so I could see more crop) Crop looked good in VA and NC, but I would concur with Raymond on conditions in OH, IL, IN. Good looking fields are few and far between. I didn't see much of Illinois, but the crop conditions peaked in Central WI and then got steadily worse as I went south and east.
Posted by tman at 8:52AM CDT 07/02/15
it's not only the drowned out spots that are gone it's also the area around the spot that will be as big or bigger as time goes on
Posted by Wally frey at 1:30PM CDT 07/06/15
corn in Kankakee county is 40%dead or will be soon .crop ratings all good . what ever
Posted by DOUG FLAGEOLE at 7:53PM CDT 07/06/15
last year in central Mn we lived through heavy rain from April till the end of June, then the rain stopped till Sept, yields were terrible 60 to 120 corn beans 15 to 30. lot of land also not planted. Another problem those conditions produce besides rutting in fields is very tough tillage conditions. Lots of broken parts also fuel consumption was very high. Again CBOT or USDA crop ratings are so wrong, the usual tactic USDA uses for their almighty reports that controls the "markets" that producers have to live with.
Posted by DAVID/KEVIN GRUENHAGEN at 12:19AM CDT 07/07/15

Friday 06/26/15

New Crop U.S. Corn Export Sales
New crop corn sales as of the third week of June in million bushels and as a percent of the June WASDE projection.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 7:24AM CDT 06/26/15 by Joel Karlin | 0 Comments | Post a Comment

Wednesday 06/24/15

World Oilseed Supplies at All-Time High
Global and foreign oilseed stocks at highest level ever and world oilseed stocks-to-use ratio at loftiest in history.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 10:30AM CDT 06/24/15 by Joel Karlin | Post a Comment
Comments (1)
End users look closer production close to usage. who thinks usda is right anyway?
Posted by andrew mohlman at 5:00PM CDT 06/24/15

Friday 06/19/15

New Crop Soybean Export Sales as of Mid-June
New crop soybean sales as of the second week in June in million bushels and those sales as a percent of the June new crop WASDE export projection.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 7:14AM CDT 06/19/15 by Joel Karlin | 0 Comments | Post a Comment

Thursday 06/18/15

Effect of Heavy Spring Rains on KS & MO Soybean Yield
Combined May and June precipitation in inches from 1990 to 2014 and the percent that each state's final soybean yield deviated from the 30 year trend.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 1:17PM CDT 06/18/15 by Joel Karlin | Post a Comment
Comments (1)
Yesterday's crop progress report indicates 7.7 million acres of soybeans remain unplanted in the 18 states of the report. We subtracted the 4 year average of soybean acres planted after another crop (double cropped) from calculated remaining to be planted. This leaves 4.6 million acres of mono-crop soybeans to be planted. Those acres by the latest crop insurance final plant date in the state are: June 10 (440 thousand acres); Minnesota (75 thousand acres), Nebraska (255), North Dakota (58), South Dakota (52), June 15 (542); Iowa (505), Wisconsin (37), June 20 (848); Illinois (424), Indiana (191), Ohio (232), June 30 (2,829); Kansas (599), Missouri (2,230). Kansas and Missouri have four final plant dates within their state. In Kansas, 45% of the soybean acres are in counties with a June 25 final plant dated or later, if these year's acres are in a similar distribution as last year. There are about 15% of their acres with a June 30 date. Missouri has about 35% of their acres with a June 25 or latter final plant date and 8% after June 30. The bottom line is there is 2.1 million unplanted mono-crop soybean acres that are past the final insurance plant date. Folks can plant after the final plant date. The net outcomes of planting versus not change every year. Our models show a 10%-30% chance that planting will net more than not planting. As time passes beyond the final plant date and crop insurance coverage drops, the odds of a profitable outcome becomes less. In very general terms, when planting netted more than not planting, the yield of the planted crop needed to be below the trigger yield and the fall price needed to be higher than the spring. It was hard to be more profitable with a good crop - as strangle as that sounds. Freeport, IL
Posted by Freeport IL at 6:45PM CDT 06/23/15

Wednesday 06/10/15

Changing South American Crop Estimates
Change in combined Argentine and Brazilian corn and soybean production from the January to the June WASDE reports vs. the percent change in July corn and July soybean futures from January 1 to June 1.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 8:48AM CDT 06/10/15 by Joel Karlin | Post a Comment
Comments (3)
A moment of confusion results when a student is asked; "What year are you?" This confusion mostly occurs after promotion of one year and before the start of the next. The student is unsure what year to declare: the one he left or the one he is going in to. (For some of us there is no confusion, the answer for both situations is/was the same. There is/was no promotion.) Grain marketing years can cause a similar confusion. We generally refer to them as "old crop" and "new crop". An old soybean crop is the one we harvested in the fall and is currently being marketed (crushed into meal and oil or exported). The new crop of soybeans is the crop that will be planted or was planted this spring and be harvest this coming fall and marketed the majority of next year. The confusion occurs on two fronts. One is after harvest but before planting. The other is when one tries to make the World the same cropping year. The marketing year for US soybeans starts September 1 - just before harvest for most of us. So generally once the crop is harvested, it becomes "old" crop and the "new" crop will be planted in the coming spring. Argentina's soybean crop starts April 1. Brazil's soybean marketing year starts February 1. This again is generally just before harvest for them. This time of year Brazil's and Argentina's new crop production (2015-16 marketing year - planted this coming fall in the Southern Hemisphere) should/could/might not have much of anything to do with November 2015 soybean prices. Their production and use estimates are penciled in by USDA for later adjustment. (The 2015-16 marketing year, in Brazil, will start February of 2016 and end January of 2017. This crop will start to be planted in September of 2015.) If we wanted to get a feel for the level of US soybean production needed to see $10.00 November soybean prices again, we can use a simple model that only looks at US production. (Other times of the year Brazil and Argentina's production would be included.) A drop in US production by something like 70 million bushels might make that happen. That would be something less than a bushel per acre drop in US soybean yield, loss of something like 1.5 million harvested acres or a combination of the two. It should be noted that South American ending old crop stocks become new crop beginning stocks and does impact November 2015 prices. Some think USDA's ending South American old crop soybean stocks are 1.3 million metric ton too low. This would result in a US yield around 1.5 bushels lower than currently projected, a drop of something like 2.5 million harvested acres or a combination of the both for November 2015 soybean to see $10.00. Looking at USDAâ?™s crop progress, one can calculate there might be 1.7 million less acres of soybeans planted when compared to the 5 year average. That does not mean they will not get planted. If the June acreage report does not catch a change in acres the next report that has a chance is the September Wasde. By then, the prospects of the new soybean crop in South American will enhance or diminish any change in harvested acres that may have occurred. So the later we go into a marketing year for soybeans, the more influence the new crop in South America plays on price. These numbers are provided as a very general indication of production changes that might be needed and are not any expectation of future results. A good student always knows the year they are until they become confused and that can be any of us or then again maybe just me. Freeport, IL
Posted by Freeport IL at 9:49AM CDT 06/12/15
Posted by JOHN HUSTON at 1:26AM CDT 06/18/15
Dollar? The dollar! Oh the dollar! - It is mysterious but yet it works like other commodities on supply and demand but with a lot of manipulation of supply. The brain stretching exercise - at least for us - is the relationship between currencies and what those changes mean. China's currency is basically linked to the dollar. If soybeans trade in dollars, the amount the amount China pays for soybeans is not affected by currency changes, only changes in the price of soybeans. The amount we (US) receive is not affected by currency changes just changes in soybean prices. The amount received by Brazil and Argentina does change with currency changes and soybean price changes. The stronger the dollar is the more they receive in their local currency, assuming soybean price and basis stay the same. So to try to answer the question; "Dollar?" we will say; "Until currency changes between the US and Argentina and/or Brazil changes the production outlook in Brazil and/or Argentina, the dollar does not matter. That may change as we get closer to decision time (planting time) in South America. We are not totally convinced the dollar will be stronger when South American decisions are being made. So basically our assumption is they will continue on their current trend without regard to currency changes, at least in the short term outlook." Our short answer is; "What?".
Posted by Freeport IL at 11:13AM CDT 06/23/15

Monday 06/08/15

KS & MO Soybean Planting Change in Acreage
Soybean plantings in KS & MO as of May 31 from 1986 to this year vs. the change in planted acreage from the March intentions to the final figures given in the annual production report released in January.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 10:24AM CDT 06/08/15 by Joel Karlin | 0 Comments | Post a Comment

Thursday 06/04/15

Soybean Oil's % of Soybean Crush
Contribution of soybean oil to the combined soybean crush margin basis in Central Illinois.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 11:06AM CDT 06/04/15 by Joel Karlin | 0 Comments | Post a Comment

Tuesday 05/19/15

Soybean Crop Conditions vs. Final Yields
Correlation coefficient between U.S. soybean crop conditions by week and the percent that the final yield deviates from the 1986-2014 trend.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 9:28AM CDT 05/19/15 by Joel Karlin | Post a Comment
Comments (1)
The soybean market seems strong compared to the "lead balloon" formations of corn and wheat. The rains of the past week or two seem to of added yield to the wheat complex. The added yield comes with increased quality concerns. This opens the door for wheat to find its way into the feed channels. This might mean 100 million or more bushels of corn displaced by feed wheat. These two factors may have resulted in weakness of corn and wheat prices. ("Big" wheat quality discounts may also be forth coming.) The relative strength of soybean prices appears to be held above a deep canyon of lower prices by four vines. Those vines appear to be: chance of low South American production, chance of low US production, South American policies and China demand. The realization that any one of these factors has changed could cause soybean prices to "lead balloon" into the canyon of lower prices. But an increasing concern of any one factor could cause a vine to grow strong enough to continue to hold prices. We may have a long way to go to see how these factors play out. The South American production is not even out of the bag. For that matter it may not even be in the bag. Brazil will start planting USDA's 2015-16 marketing year crop (the crop we are or have planted this spring) on September 15, 2015 (this coming fall). New crop prices may be holding high to make sure the projected level of planting occurs. August is the month, it is said, that makes US soybean yield. So parts of these two factors will be unknown till late summer at the earliest. Changes in the other two factors could occur at any time. The South American political risk seems to be associated with their export taxes. A drop of these taxes might result in a release of soybeans stored by farmer as inflation and/or currency hedge assuming their currency/inflation situation stabilizes or improves. China is the largest importer of soybeans. Their continued demand is expected and need, for stable to increasing prices. The potential "lead balloon" of soybean prices appears to be held at these "higher" prices by the four "vines". The strength or weakness of two of the major supports will be partly unknown until late summer at the earliest. Baring policy changes in South America and/or China, soybean may appear "strong" (relative to corn and wheat) till then. Freeport, IL
Posted by Freeport IL at 8:01AM CDT 06/01/15

Monday 05/18/15

Corn Crop Conditions vs. Final Yields
Correlation coefficient between U.S. corn crop conditions by week and the percent that the final yield deviates from the 1986-2014 trend[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 11:01AM CDT 05/18/15 by Joel Karlin | Post a Comment
Comments (1)
Historic very slow (too wet) or very fast (too dry) detrended planting pace has resulted in the lowest US corn yields as viewed from a percent of trend line yield. This year's planting pace has, from a historic point of view, removed the very low US yields from the picture. There is still a chance to see the CME print a mid $4.00 or better number but that chance has drop in half (our guess is currently one in 6 to 7 years) if planting pace has anything to do with US yield. One may want to think how that price level and multi-year corn sales would work - or not- for your operation. To us it seems there could be enough flex in the planted corn acres to keep the risk for high prices about the same whether or not a low yield materializes this year or not. (A low US yield/high price would result in more acres next year and visa versa.) The big risk is a new RFS standard. Every operation is different and has different abilities, needs and requirements. So it is provided here as food for thought. Freeport, IL
Posted by Freeport IL at 12:20PM CDT 05/18/15

Thursday 05/14/15

Stocks to Use Ratios vs. Avg Soy Prices
World and U.S. soybean stocks to use ratio for the past 25 years versus average spot futures price for each marketing year.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 8:49AM CDT 05/14/15 by Joel Karlin | 0 Comments | Post a Comment

Wednesday 05/13/15

Stocks to Use Ratios vs. Avg Corn Price
World & U.S. corn stocks to use ratio for the past 25 years along with the average spot futures price for each marketing year.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 7:36AM CDT 05/13/15 by Joel Karlin | 0 Comments | Post a Comment

Tuesday 05/12/15

Spring Wheat Planting Date Impact
Percent of the spring wheat planted by May 1 vs. the percent change in planted acreage.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 9:01AM CDT 05/12/15 by Joel Karlin | 0 Comments | Post a Comment

Wednesday 05/06/15

Winter Wheat Conditions vs. Yield & Harvested/Planted Ratio
U.S. winter wheat conditions as of May 1 vs. the final harvested to planted ratio and the May winter wheat yield estimate as a percent of the 30 year trend.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 9:30AM CDT 05/06/15 by Joel Karlin | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
Blog Home Pages
July  2014
      1 2 3 4 5
6 7 8 9 10 11 12
13 14 15 16 17 18 19
20 21 22 23 24 25 26
27 28 29 30 31      
Subscribe to Fundamentally Speaking RSS
Recent Blog Posts