Fundamentally Speaking
Joel Karlin DTN Contributing Analyst

Thursday 12/18/14

U.S. vs. Chinese Yields of Key Ag Items
25 year history of Chinese corn, soybean, wheat, rice and cotton yields as a percent of U.S. yields along with the 25 year trend.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 12:51PM CST 12/18/14 by Joel Karlin | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Wednesday 12/17/14

Dollar Rally Making US Beans Uncompetitive
Appreciation of the U.S. dollar versus the currencies of Argentina and Brazil.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 10:08AM CST 12/17/14 by Joel Karlin | Post a Comment
Comments (1)
There is a thought that the excess liquidity from the US quantitative easing (QE) found a home in the developing economies which tend to be commodity driven. When QE ended, the developing economies started to contract. The contraction is visible in their declining currencies. The US agricultural economy may feel the pain of this currency decline once evaluations stabilize. During foreign currency declines, there seems to be tendency to hold commodities, which generally are US dollar denominated, as a strategy to counter the declining purchase power. Once foreign currencies stabilize, the focus should /could /might change from holding commodities to increasing commodity production to meet the demand of their currency driven low prices. Things may become challenging for US commodity producers in a strong dollar large supply environment. These challenges may be a year out but might be around for sometime in the future. Freeport, IL
Posted by Freeport IL at 11:32AM CST 12/17/14
 

Friday 12/12/14

Sep-Nov Corn Feed Usage Estimates
Sep-Nov feed use estimate as a percent of the December WASDE report vs. the change in the USDA's corn feed estimate from the December to the January WASDE reports and the change in U.S. corn production from the November to the final crop report in January.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 7:27AM CST 12/12/14 by Joel Karlin | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Thursday 12/11/14

Mid-May Corn Plantings vs. Acreage Change
Changes in U.S. corn planted acreage from the August to final crop report in January vs. percent of U.S. corn crop planted by May 15th[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 10:38AM CST 12/11/14 by Joel Karlin | Post a Comment
Comments (1)
A look head to 2014-15 corn planted aces. Playing with current option values and past price relationship, it appears the market is expecting something like 2 million less corn planted acres next spring. The numbers seem to indicate each million acre change in planted corn acres might equal something like a $0.15 change in the CME price. If these projection are any indication of a future price-supply relationship, concerns of production dropping weather or a major corn/soybean acreage battle will be needed the see the high $4 mark at the CME for December futures. Freeport, IL
Posted by Freeport IL at 10:54AM CST 12/12/14
 

Thursday 12/04/14

New Crop Bean-Corn Ratio
New crop November soybean-December corn ratio as of December 1 and 3 ?? months later on March 1.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 1:05PM CST 12/04/14 by Joel Karlin | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Friday 11/28/14

Prospective 2015 US Soybean Yields
Actual U.S. soybean yields in bushels/acre along with the 10, 20, 30 and 40 year trendlines.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 8:09AM CST 11/28/14 by Joel Karlin | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Wednesday 11/26/14

Early Thoughts on 2015 US Corn Yield
10, 20, 30, and 40 year trends for corn along with the actual yields in bushels per acre.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 10:01AM CST 11/26/14 by Joel Karlin | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Friday 11/21/14

10, 20 and 30 Year Corn Yield Volatility
Volatility in corn yields for the top 18 producing states and the U.S. over the past ten, twenty, and thirty years.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 8:36AM CST 11/21/14 by Joel Karlin | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Thursday 11/20/14

Foreign Exchange Adjusted Corn Prices
Continuous CME corn futures priced in the currencies of five largest foreign corn buyers.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 10:38AM CST 11/20/14 by Joel Karlin | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Wednesday 11/19/14

Wheat Export Sales as of 1st Week of Nov
U.S. wheat exports as of the first week in November as a percent of the November WASDE export projection & change in million bushels from the November WASDE export estimate to the final export projection.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 10:48AM CST 11/19/14 by Joel Karlin | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Tuesday 11/18/14

2014 Soybean Yields in Top States
2014 and 2004-2013 average soybean yields in each of the top 18 producing states, and the 2014 yield as a percent of that ten year average.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 10:08AM CST 11/18/14 by Joel Karlin | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Monday 11/17/14

2014 Corn Yield in Top States
2014 and 2004-2013 average corn yield in each of the top 18 producing states, and 2014 yield as a percent of the ten year average.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 10:47AM CST 11/17/14 by Joel Karlin | Post a Comment
Comments (3)
Drove across southern Michigan last week and every elevator with outside corn piles were still sitting empty.Was very little corn yet to be harvested.We live in Michigans' largest corn producing county and corn quality was poor this year, wet and low test weights.No record crops here!!
Posted by Raymond Simpkins at 7:07AM CST 11/18/14
Not here in Minnesota either
Posted by Lori Olson at 7:34AM CST 11/18/14
In sc Minnesota,there wasn;t enough to fill the on farm storage.Late planting heavy rains,and that early frost on Sept.13,really hurt.Usda has the Minnesota harvest way over stated,,,but then they wanted to be right about a big crop,Sometime,maybe by the june 30th stocks report ,they'll figure out,the corns gone.
Posted by TERRY PIOSKE at 8:17AM CST 11/18/14
 

Friday 11/07/14

Late Oct Soybean & Soymeal Exports
This piece look sat the soybean and soybean meal sales pace as of the third week in October as a percent of the USDA's October WASDE export projection going back a number of years.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 7:31AM CST 11/07/14 by Joel Karlin | Post a Comment
Comments (1)
The efficient market theory does not find allot of support around here. However we do not believe the market remains "STUPID" for long periods of time either. The "Talking Heads" (market commentators), over the holiday, were overwhelmingly in support of new crop sales. They think/thought prices were high for possible ending stocks next year. We have to agree. Supplies look to have a chance of being heavier next year. The market has run the numbers as well and still has pretty firm prices for this next harvest. Is the market seeing "extra" consumption that is being missed by the rest of us or is it simply a matter of waiting for a confirmation of acres? Many of us are in need of a little more room in these prices. Maybe a seasonal (spring - early summer) move is in the cards. Freeport, IL Ps Markets are rarely stupid for more than a month but we have been known to be stupid for years on end. Just ask our wives.
Posted by Freeport IL at 1:15AM CST 12/02/14
 

Friday 10/31/14

First Winter Wheat Crop Rating vs. May Yield Est.
This graphic shows the first fall crop rating for the U.S. winter wheat crop and plots that against the percent that the USDA's May winter wheat yield estimate deviates from the 25 year trend of these May estimates.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 6:35AM CDT 10/31/14 by Joel Karlin | Post a Comment
Comments (1)
Soft Red Winter Wheat (SRWW) week 45 emergence as represented by the states of Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio (AIIMMNCO) on a 10 year weighted average basis is the third lowest since 1987-88 marketing year. The trend line (very low correlation) points to 6.6 million planted acres. A low end relationship points to 5.1 million planted SRWW acres. The high end points to 7.4. This wide range of results might indicate a stable to higher Chicago wheat prices for the 2015-16 marketing year.
Posted by Freeport IL at 12:21AM CST 11/18/14
 

Thursday 10/30/14

Corn Feed Demand
The accompanying graphic shows U.S. corn fed per grain consuming animal units vs. the average farm price.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 8:41AM CDT 10/30/14 by Joel Karlin | Post a Comment
Comments (1)
Feed and residual use estimated use of corn has dropped two times: July; 125 million bushels and October; 50 million bushels, for the 2013-14 marketing year that ended August 31, 2014. Most of that change might be attributed to PEDV in the swine herd. Ten percent pigs lose because of the virus has been projected and reported. That level of loss could make up most of the 175 million bushel decline. One comes up with 5,300 bushel use, if the 175 million bushels is added to 5,125 million bushels of corn that is estimated to have been fed in 2013-14. These 5,300 million bushels might have been the level of corn use if the death loss had not occurred. USDA is estimating 5,375 million bushel of corn being fed and residually used (still not 100% sure how that works) for 2014-15. That is a 1.4% increase from the no death number of 2013-14. USDA is projecting a 1.2% increase in red meat and poultry production along with a 2.1% increase in eggs and a 3.4% increase in milk. So from here, USDA projections look doable if PEDV can be controlled. They might be 175 million bushels too high if PEDV is not controlled and the percent losses are similar to this year's. It is also rare to see feed consumption per animal unit below 1.5 when the hog to corn price ration is above 16. The ratio points to something like 23 this coming year. Freeport, IL
Posted by Freeport IL at 1:21PM CST 11/03/14
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Recent Blog Posts
  • U.S. vs. Chinese Yields of Key Ag Items
  • Dollar Rally Making US Beans Uncompetitive
  • Sep-Nov Corn Feed Usage Estimates
  • Mid-May Corn Plantings vs. Acreage Change
  • New Crop Bean-Corn Ratio
  • Prospective 2015 US Soybean Yields
  • Early Thoughts on 2015 US Corn Yield
  • 10, 20 and 30 Year Corn Yield Volatility
  • Foreign Exchange Adjusted Corn Prices
  • Wheat Export Sales as of 1st Week of Nov
  • 2014 Soybean Yields in Top States
  • 2014 Corn Yield in Top States
  • Late Oct Soybean & Soymeal Exports
  • First Winter Wheat Crop Rating vs. May Yield Est.
  • Corn Feed Demand
  • Corn & Soy Harvest as of Oct. 19th
  • Farmer Sales of Wheat, Price Changes
  • Farmer Sales of Soybeans vs. Avg Monthly Price Change
  • Farmer Sales of Corn vs. Corn Price Changes
  • End of Sept. Corn, Soybean Conditions