Fundamentally Speaking
Joel Karlin DTN Contributing Analyst

Thursday 11/20/14

Foreign Exchange Adjusted Corn Prices
Continuous CME corn futures priced in the currencies of five largest foreign corn buyers.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 10:38AM CST 11/20/14 by Joel Karlin | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Wednesday 11/19/14

Wheat Export Sales as of 1st Week of Nov
U.S. wheat exports as of the first week in November as a percent of the November WASDE export projection & change in million bushels from the November WASDE export estimate to the final export projection.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 10:48AM CST 11/19/14 by Joel Karlin | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Tuesday 11/18/14

2014 Soybean Yields in Top States
2014 and 2004-2013 average soybean yields in each of the top 18 producing states, and the 2014 yield as a percent of that ten year average.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 10:08AM CST 11/18/14 by Joel Karlin | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Monday 11/17/14

2014 Corn Yield in Top States
2014 and 2004-2013 average corn yield in each of the top 18 producing states, and 2014 yield as a percent of the ten year average.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 10:47AM CST 11/17/14 by Joel Karlin | Post a Comment
Comments (3)
Drove across southern Michigan last week and every elevator with outside corn piles were still sitting empty.Was very little corn yet to be harvested.We live in Michigans' largest corn producing county and corn quality was poor this year, wet and low test weights.No record crops here!!
Posted by Raymond Simpkins at 7:07AM CST 11/18/14
Not here in Minnesota either
Posted by Lori Olson at 7:34AM CST 11/18/14
In sc Minnesota,there wasn;t enough to fill the on farm storage.Late planting heavy rains,and that early frost on Sept.13,really hurt.Usda has the Minnesota harvest way over stated,,,but then they wanted to be right about a big crop,Sometime,maybe by the june 30th stocks report ,they'll figure out,the corns gone.
Posted by TERRY PIOSKE at 8:17AM CST 11/18/14
 

Friday 11/07/14

Late Oct Soybean & Soymeal Exports
This piece look sat the soybean and soybean meal sales pace as of the third week in October as a percent of the USDA's October WASDE export projection going back a number of years.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 7:31AM CST 11/07/14 by Joel Karlin | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Friday 10/31/14

First Winter Wheat Crop Rating vs. May Yield Est.
This graphic shows the first fall crop rating for the U.S. winter wheat crop and plots that against the percent that the USDA's May winter wheat yield estimate deviates from the 25 year trend of these May estimates.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 6:35AM CDT 10/31/14 by Joel Karlin | Post a Comment
Comments (1)
Soft Red Winter Wheat (SRWW) week 45 emergence as represented by the states of Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio (AIIMMNCO) on a 10 year weighted average basis is the third lowest since 1987-88 marketing year. The trend line (very low correlation) points to 6.6 million planted acres. A low end relationship points to 5.1 million planted SRWW acres. The high end points to 7.4. This wide range of results might indicate a stable to higher Chicago wheat prices for the 2015-16 marketing year.
Posted by Freeport IL at 12:21AM CST 11/18/14
 

Thursday 10/30/14

Corn Feed Demand
The accompanying graphic shows U.S. corn fed per grain consuming animal units vs. the average farm price.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 8:41AM CDT 10/30/14 by Joel Karlin | Post a Comment
Comments (1)
Feed and residual use estimated use of corn has dropped two times: July; 125 million bushels and October; 50 million bushels, for the 2013-14 marketing year that ended August 31, 2014. Most of that change might be attributed to PEDV in the swine herd. Ten percent pigs lose because of the virus has been projected and reported. That level of loss could make up most of the 175 million bushel decline. One comes up with 5,300 bushel use, if the 175 million bushels is added to 5,125 million bushels of corn that is estimated to have been fed in 2013-14. These 5,300 million bushels might have been the level of corn use if the death loss had not occurred. USDA is estimating 5,375 million bushel of corn being fed and residually used (still not 100% sure how that works) for 2014-15. That is a 1.4% increase from the no death number of 2013-14. USDA is projecting a 1.2% increase in red meat and poultry production along with a 2.1% increase in eggs and a 3.4% increase in milk. So from here, USDA projections look doable if PEDV can be controlled. They might be 175 million bushels too high if PEDV is not controlled and the percent losses are similar to this year's. It is also rare to see feed consumption per animal unit below 1.5 when the hog to corn price ration is above 16. The ratio points to something like 23 this coming year. Freeport, IL
Posted by Freeport IL at 1:21PM CST 11/03/14
 

Tuesday 10/21/14

Corn & Soy Harvest as of Oct. 19th
The accompanying chart shows the percent of the U.S. corn and soybeans harvested as of October 19 going back to 1981.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 1:49PM CDT 10/21/14 by Joel Karlin | Post a Comment
Comments (1)
Slow corn and soybean harvest may be the cause of or is correlated with slow soft red winter wheat (SRWW) planting. USDA's crop progress numbers for winter wheat planting progress has all classes of winter wheat combined. The states of Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, Michigan and Ohio (AIIMMO) might represent SRWW. The AIIMMO has gone from over 60% of SRWW planted in the 1980's to the low 40% in the 2010's. AIIMMO planted 5 to 9 million acres of SRWW in the 1980's to 2.5 to 4.5 million acres in the 2010's. The total SRWW planted acres has dropped in this time period but AIIMMO acres are dropping faster than the total. So other areas, mainly the states to the south and east are becoming more important areas. This also means USDA's AIIMMO winter wheat planting progress is less of an indicator of possible SRWW planted acres. It is important to remember the farther south one goes the later one can plant a successful SRWW crop. So with that being the disclaimer, it looks from the weighted AIIMMO planting progress of winter wheat this is the slowest plant since the fall of 2009. That marketing year, 2010-11, there was 5.3 million SRWW acres planted. A trend line approach, which has a very weak correlation, points to about 7.5 million acres being planted. This is 12% fewer acres than the 8.5 million acres planted last fall. If yields and use do not see a major change, prices should be within the current range. A drop in SRWW planted acres to 5.6 million acre level points to price $1.50 higher. Freeport, IL
Posted by Freeport IL at 11:35AM CDT 10/23/14
 

Friday 10/17/14

Farmer Sales of Wheat, Price Changes
All wheat marketing's by month vs. the monthly percent change in Chicago wheat futures.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 7:08AM CDT 10/17/14 by Joel Karlin | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Friday 10/10/14

Farmer Sales of Soybeans vs. Avg Monthly Price Change
The average percent of soybeans sold per month by U.S. farmers' vs. the average monthly price change for soybean futures using data covering the period 1995 to 2013.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 7:40AM CDT 10/10/14 by Joel Karlin | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Thursday 10/09/14

Farmer Sales of Corn vs. Corn Price Changes
The average percent of corn sold per month by U.S. farmers' vs. the average monthly price change for corn futures using data covering the period 1995 to 2013.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 8:45AM CDT 10/09/14 by Joel Karlin | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Friday 10/03/14

End of Sept. Corn, Soybean Conditions
This graphic shows the fifth highest corn rating ever and the third highest soybean rating ever at the end of September.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 7:27AM CDT 10/03/14 by Joel Karlin | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Thursday 10/02/14

October Price Action for Dec Corn & Nov Beans
The accompanying graphic shows the percent price change in October for both December corn and November soybeans from 1991 and the 1991-2012 average.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 10:10AM CDT 10/02/14 by Joel Karlin | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Wednesday 09/24/14

Corn Prices Pressured by Record Yields
Corn situation bearish not only due to U.S. situation but also record world crop.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 1:06PM CDT 09/24/14 by Joel Karlin | Post a Comment
Comments (5)
why the hell is the drought in china not covered in ag news them people will need our grain guess they will get it cheaper than it cost to grow thanks you great market know it alls like shooting tomahawks at american ag
Posted by andrew mohlman at 9:58PM CDT 09/24/14
Andrew, I'll give you one thing...it is sure fun to read your ramblings. You are certifiable 100% bat$hit crazy, either by eating too many lead paint chips as a child or currently drinking WAYYYYY too much cough syrup, but you are a trip to read, unlike that Jay Cliché. She is just flat out boring/dull.
Posted by Brandon Butler at 4:37PM CDT 09/25/14
Dryness in China is regional. It has indeed been dry in the north central but has not been a widespread event in major corn areas.
Posted by Bryce Anderson at 3:09AM CDT 09/29/14
must of been another small region where the corn was poor the record talk is not usually reality I am sure china would like cheap grain
Posted by andrew mohlman at 4:03AM CDT 09/30/14
For the last year you guys have been saying even though it has been cold here, the rest of the world is burning up. Now the rest of the world has a record crop too. Looks like globle warming isn't that bad after all.
Posted by FRANK FULWIDER at 10:30AM CDT 10/01/14
 

Tuesday 09/23/14

Can Corn Futures Fall Below $3.00?
The current stocks to use ratio is one of the highest since the fall of 2006 and if it goes higher may allow futures to recede below long-term support of $3.00 per bushel.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 10:25AM CDT 09/23/14 by Joel Karlin | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
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Recent Blog Posts
  • Foreign Exchange Adjusted Corn Prices
  • Wheat Export Sales as of 1st Week of Nov
  • 2014 Soybean Yields in Top States
  • 2014 Corn Yield in Top States
  • Late Oct Soybean & Soymeal Exports
  • First Winter Wheat Crop Rating vs. May Yield Est.
  • Corn Feed Demand
  • Corn & Soy Harvest as of Oct. 19th
  • Farmer Sales of Wheat, Price Changes
  • Farmer Sales of Soybeans vs. Avg Monthly Price Change
  • Farmer Sales of Corn vs. Corn Price Changes
  • End of Sept. Corn, Soybean Conditions
  • October Price Action for Dec Corn & Nov Beans
  • Corn Prices Pressured by Record Yields
  • Can Corn Futures Fall Below $3.00?
  • Depressed Corn Price Volatility
  • USDA September Soybean Yield Estimate
  • July, August Rain Distribution
  • Implied corn ear weights
  • Corn Crop Conditions