Fundamentally Speaking
Joel Karlin DTN Contributing Analyst

Friday 01/30/15

2015/16 Corn Ending Stocks Matrix
Prospective 2015/16 U.S. corn ending stocks figures based on various combinations of planted acreage numbers going across the x-axis in millions and yields going down the y-axis in bushels per acre (bpa).[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 7:18AM CST 01/30/15 by Joel Karlin | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Thursday 01/29/15

July Wheat-Corn Spread & History
July wheat-corn spread using 1990-2014 data for the five, fifteen and twenty-five year seasonal and what has occurred so far for the 2015 spread; all in dollars per bushel.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 8:39AM CST 01/29/15 by Joel Karlin | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Wednesday 01/28/15

U.S. Soybean Sales & Shipment Pace
Sales through 2nd week of Jan are at record high and 92% of Jan WASDE projection.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 9:17AM CST 01/28/15 by Joel Karlin | Post a Comment
Comments (2)
Thank you Joel for finally someone speaks the truth about South American production at the expense of the US producers. Now do not forget where would those countries be today without Monsanto etc. John Deere etc. and all the other US technologies they currently enjoy while cutting the throats of US farmers. Doom and gloom everyday in our USDA controlled markets. No matter what happens with weather in those countries there will always be "record yields" guarantees from the Almighty USDA reports.
Posted by DAVID/KEVIN GRUENHAGEN at 10:12AM CST 01/28/15
India may also increase their imports of raw oilseeds. They have increased import tax on edible oils and have the potential of dropping import tariff on oilseeds. They may want to increase oilseed processing to keep those processing margins at home. India is expected to import 1.93 million metric ton of soybean oil this marketing year. If policy changes are targeted at 100% domestic soybean oil production, about 370 million bushels of soybeans would need to be imported. The US seems best positioned for increase export demand with Brazil's limits on loading capacity and Argentina mainly exporting the processed products of meal and oil. (The US is expected to export 1,780 million bushel of soybeans and have a total use of 3,666 million bushels this marketing year.) India is currently an exporter of soybean meal. Any increase in soybean processing would like increase meal exports. The countries of Southeastern Asia currently are large importers of soybean meal. India's increase production, if it occurs, would most likely head there. (The percent of meal production that is export by country is expected to be about: US, 30%; Brazil, 49% and Argentina, 94%. Oil exports as a percent of production is expected to be about: US 10%; Brazil, 16% and Argentina, 60%.) Any changes, if they occur at all, will not occur overnight but it shows the future potential. Freeport, IL
Posted by Freeport IL at 9:50AM CST 01/29/15
 

Thursday 01/22/15

Record Global Yields of Top Crops
This graphic shows world yields of three of the planet's major crops including corn, wheat and soybeans since the 1961/62 season.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 10:32AM CST 01/22/15 by Joel Karlin | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Wednesday 01/14/15

Soybean Yields & Trends
Actual 2014 soybean yield in bushels per acre for the U.S. and the top producing states, that yield as a percent of the 20 year trend and this year's estimated 20 year trend yield.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 9:47AM CST 01/14/15 by Joel Karlin | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Tuesday 01/13/15

Corn Yields & Trend
Actual 2014 yield in bushels per acre for the U.S. and the top producing states, that yield as a percent of the 20 year trend and this year's estimated 20 year trend yield.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 9:29AM CST 01/13/15 by Joel Karlin | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Thursday 01/08/15

Changing Corn-Soybean Planted Area Ratios
Corn-soybean planted area ratio in the top 15 corn and soybean producing states over three time periods; the 1995-2014 20 year period, the 2005-2014 10 year period and the 2010-2014 five year period.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 9:57AM CST 01/08/15 by Joel Karlin | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Friday 01/02/15

USDA Feb Ag Outlook Yield Projections
USDA yield estimates for U.S. corn, soybeans, and wheat given at the Ag Outlook forums from 1998 to 2014.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 7:59AM CST 01/02/15 by Joel Karlin | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Wednesday 12/31/14

Price Change & Volatility for 2014 Key Markets
End-of-year recap of percent price change for a number of key commodity, credit, foreign exchange and equity futures during 2014.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 8:52AM CST 12/31/14 by Joel Karlin | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Wednesday 12/24/14

Seasonal July-November Soybean Spread
July-November soybean spread in dollars per bushel from January 1 to June 30 for three separate time periods; 1990-2014, 1990-2002 and 2003 to 2014.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 9:31AM CST 12/24/14 by Joel Karlin | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Thursday 12/18/14

U.S. vs. Chinese Yields of Key Ag Items
25 year history of Chinese corn, soybean, wheat, rice and cotton yields as a percent of U.S. yields along with the 25 year trend.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 12:51PM CST 12/18/14 by Joel Karlin | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Wednesday 12/17/14

Dollar Rally Making US Beans Uncompetitive
Appreciation of the U.S. dollar versus the currencies of Argentina and Brazil.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 10:08AM CST 12/17/14 by Joel Karlin | Post a Comment
Comments (2)
There is a thought that the excess liquidity from the US quantitative easing (QE) found a home in the developing economies which tend to be commodity driven. When QE ended, the developing economies started to contract. The contraction is visible in their declining currencies. The US agricultural economy may feel the pain of this currency decline once evaluations stabilize. During foreign currency declines, there seems to be tendency to hold commodities, which generally are US dollar denominated, as a strategy to counter the declining purchase power. Once foreign currencies stabilize, the focus should /could /might change from holding commodities to increasing commodity production to meet the demand of their currency driven low prices. Things may become challenging for US commodity producers in a strong dollar large supply environment. These challenges may be a year out but might be around for sometime in the future. Freeport, IL
Posted by Freeport IL at 11:32AM CST 12/17/14
A weird frame of reference is sometimes required to understand currency relationships. The point of reference is similar to one needed when trying to understand Einstein's theory of relativity. When looking at the world's soybean and corn price relations, two basic assumptions are needed: Prices are based on CME price levels and China's currency is tied to the dollar (the Yuan and Dollar do have small changes but ignored in this discussion). So the price China pays should be very similar in all countries with price adjustments due to different basis levels. Using the above assumptions the board price of soybeans in local currencies dropped 18.4% in Brazil this last twelve months and 17.0% in Argentina. Prices dropped 24.3% on the CME during that period. The price to China, without country basis adjustment, should be down around that 24.3% in all countries: US, Brazil and Argentina. The competitive advantage for the South American countries comes from their declining currency versus the US Dollar and Chinese Yuan. Argentina's currency drop more than Brazil's when compared to the dollar giving it the smallest price decline. So the advantage Brazil and Argentina has over the US when export to China is not a lower price to China in Yuan but a relatively higher local price to cover cost. Their lower currency increases the local cost of imported goods possibly increasing cost of production. A stronger Argentine peso and/or Brazilian Real against the dollar might give a nice surprise to US agriculture. Freeport, IL
Posted by Freeport IL at 11:49PM CST 01/26/15
 

Friday 12/12/14

Sep-Nov Corn Feed Usage Estimates
Sep-Nov feed use estimate as a percent of the December WASDE report vs. the change in the USDA's corn feed estimate from the December to the January WASDE reports and the change in U.S. corn production from the November to the final crop report in January.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 7:27AM CST 12/12/14 by Joel Karlin | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Thursday 12/11/14

Mid-May Corn Plantings vs. Acreage Change
Changes in U.S. corn planted acreage from the August to final crop report in January vs. percent of U.S. corn crop planted by May 15th[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 10:38AM CST 12/11/14 by Joel Karlin | Post a Comment
Comments (1)
A look head to 2014-15 corn planted aces. Playing with current option values and past price relationship, it appears the market is expecting something like 2 million less corn planted acres next spring. The numbers seem to indicate each million acre change in planted corn acres might equal something like a $0.15 change in the CME price. If these projection are any indication of a future price-supply relationship, concerns of production dropping weather or a major corn/soybean acreage battle will be needed the see the high $4 mark at the CME for December futures. Freeport, IL
Posted by Freeport IL at 10:54AM CST 12/12/14
 

Thursday 12/04/14

New Crop Bean-Corn Ratio
New crop November soybean-December corn ratio as of December 1 and 3 ?? months later on March 1.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 1:05PM CST 12/04/14 by Joel Karlin | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
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Recent Blog Posts
  • 2015/16 Corn Ending Stocks Matrix
  • July Wheat-Corn Spread & History
  • U.S. Soybean Sales & Shipment Pace
  • Record Global Yields of Top Crops
  • Soybean Yields & Trends
  • Corn Yields & Trend
  • Changing Corn-Soybean Planted Area Ratios
  • USDA Feb Ag Outlook Yield Projections
  • Price Change & Volatility for 2014 Key Markets
  • Seasonal July-November Soybean Spread
  • U.S. vs. Chinese Yields of Key Ag Items
  • Dollar Rally Making US Beans Uncompetitive
  • Sep-Nov Corn Feed Usage Estimates
  • Mid-May Corn Plantings vs. Acreage Change
  • New Crop Bean-Corn Ratio
  • Prospective 2015 US Soybean Yields
  • Early Thoughts on 2015 US Corn Yield
  • 10, 20 and 30 Year Corn Yield Volatility
  • Foreign Exchange Adjusted Corn Prices
  • Wheat Export Sales as of 1st Week of Nov