Fundamentally Speaking
Joel Karlin DTN Contributing Analyst

Friday 08/01/14

USDA August Soybean Yield Estimates
This graphic shows national soybean crop ratings as of July 27th vs. the percent that the USDA's August soybean yield estimate deviated from the 1986-2013 trend of USDA August soybean yield estimates.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 7:42AM CDT 08/01/14 | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Wednesday 07/30/14

New Crop Soybean Meal Sales
The accompanying chart shows new crop U.S. soybean meal sales on the books as of the third week of July going back a number of years in short tons.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 9:50AM CDT 07/30/14 | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Thursday 07/24/14

MN Corn Ear/Plant Ratio
This graphic is a scatterplot showing the corn ear/plant ratio going across the x-axis for the state of Minnesota vs. average July temperatures going up the y-axis in degrees Fahrenheit.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 9:34AM CDT 07/24/14 | Post a Comment
Comments (4)
two ears in a turned dry end of season worse than one. plant had too big idea like everybody else looks likley from here
Posted by andrew mohlman at 4:17PM CDT 07/24/14
I don;t know what part of the state your seeing these two ears,in sc minnesota,just a few fields that were planted early are even tasseling,and theres alot that won;t till mid Aug.,,and this is a very laege area this is happening to.Ive heard on the radio talk of 180,,totally not happening,if no frost till Oct 15,i;ll go with 149,,a frost the 20th of sept.,many fields won;t make grain,,
Posted by TERRY PIOSKE at 9:08AM CDT 07/25/14
As of July 27th, 61 % of the corn in Minnesota was tasseling. Thats plenty of acres to get a good idea of how many stalks have two ears.
Posted by BURNELL KELLER at 7:31PM CDT 07/28/14
A major frost event would be needed to change to fundamental outlook for the corn market. A model was developed to look at the possible frost impact on North Dakota corn yields and resulting reduction to US production. There appears to be about a 50% chance (1 in 2 years) of a yield reduction of 15% from lower test weight. This would reduce US production by about 0.8 bushels per acre. The model indicates a 25% chance (1 in 4 years) of a 20% North Dakota yield reduction and a 10% chance (1 in 10 years) of a 50% yield reduction. The highest level of damage would result in US production decline of around 3 bushels per acre. This is less than the "talked about" increase in US yield estimates when compared with the July WADSE yield projections for the 2014-15 marketing year. So the ending balance would likely end up higher then the current "street" estimates with the generally "good" growing condition of the US corn crop even with a major killing frost in North Dakota. Another state, like Minnesota, Michigan or Wisconsin, or a 1974 like event would be needed to have severe enough damage to change the US balance sheet enough to rally prices to the pre- June 30th level. Frost damage (light corn) does result in increased usage for ethanol plant and feed consumption. That increased consumption is hard to quantify - at least for us - and is not included in the balance sheet calculations. An ethanol plant that uses corn with a 20% reduction in test weight, from frost damage, might be required to use 11% more corn by weight or 38% by volume to net the same production target. The "light" corn would produce more ddgs - may be as much as 40% more than frost free corn - thus changing feed consumption and may be exports. Many corn fed species will require more pounds of frost damaged feed to have the same gain as "normal" grain but that may be partly or fully met by more available ddgs. The "market" is generally "slow" to see the increased demand side of frost damaged corn but it seems a wide spread event will be needed to cause much "stronger" prices in the long run. Freeport, IL
Posted by Freeport IL at 11:55AM CDT 07/31/14
 

Wednesday 07/23/14

7/20 Corn Conditions vs. August Yield Estimates
This graphic shows national crop ratings as of July 20 vs. the percent that the USDA's August corn yield estimate deviated from the 1980-2013 trend of USDA August corn yield estimates.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 10:20AM CDT 07/23/14 | Post a Comment
Comments (1)
Why are there more dots then years? I count 28 dots for supposedly 23 years.
Posted by Unknown at 12:10PM CDT 07/23/14
 

Friday 07/18/14

IL July Temps vs. Corn Ear Weight
This chart is a scatterplot of average Illinois July temperatures vs. the implied or derived corn ear weight in pounds.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 7:22AM CDT 07/18/14 | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Wednesday 07/16/14

Nov Bean/Dec Corn Price Ratio
This piece looks at the SX/CZ ratio as of July 15th going back to 1985 and compares the price ratio that day with the difference between the July WASDE new crop corn stocks to use ratio vs. the new crop soybean stocks to use ratio.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 10:00AM CDT 07/16/14 | Post a Comment
Comments (2)
It has stayed stubbornly high for quite a long time now...as we move thru July, this corn crop will likely be "made" as July is the key month for corn pollination. If for some reason it would get dry in August, the key month for beans, the SX/CZ ration could actually move higher! But with all things being equal - assuming the weather continues - you would think the ratio would have to come down. Just haven't seen it yet, including this week, when it has moved higher yet again.
Posted by Peter Smith at 9:12AM CDT 07/17/14
An higher the ratio goes...almost daily. The corn crop is made, and the market has doubts about the 415 million bu carryover numbers for soybean stocks next year.
Posted by Peter Smith at 12:15PM CDT 07/24/14
 

Thursday 07/10/14

Corn States Setting Record High Yields
The accompanying graphic shows since 1981 the number of the top 18 producing states that saw record high state yields in an individual year vs. the percent that final national corn yields deviated from the 30 year trend.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 10:55AM CDT 07/10/14 | Post a Comment
Comments (5)
over blown bs need to quit growing for a year to shut some mouths.cost of production should matter in long run it will or were all in trouble
Posted by andrew mohlman at 7:43AM CDT 07/14/14
In 1985 the U.S. corn carryout was about 4.04B bu. after already having the PIK program - paying people not to grow corn! In 1986 it grew to 4.88B and in 1987 it was 4.26B! The nearby late summer price range was $1.42 to $2.03 (from USDA balance sheet)! You've got it Andrew and nobody is worried about it but you and me! That's what this thing could become in the next year or two and it will be ugly! Oh by the way - $400 seed and 300 bpa won't fix it! Only more demand will! Take care!
Posted by Roger Cooper at 9:00AM CDT 07/14/14
were did all that corn go roger this country likes its corn
Posted by andrew mohlman at 8:19AM CDT 07/16/14
Unfortunately Andrew, droughts are about the only thing in our long range plan that gets rid of too much corn. Thank the Man for Ethanol - used about 5B bu. for that last year! Can you imagine staring at a 7B+ carryout and the price that would create! End users would be happy, happy, happy! They don't want the grain guy making any big profits!
Posted by Roger Cooper at 11:36AM CDT 07/16/14
Unfortunately Andrew, droughts are about the only thing in our long range plan that gets rid of too much corn. Thank the Man for Ethanol - used about 5B bu. for that last year! Can you imagine staring at a 7B+ carryout and the price that would create! End users would be happy, happy, happy! They don't want the grain guy making any big profits!
Posted by Roger Cooper at 11:36AM CDT 07/16/14
 

Wednesday 07/09/14

July 1st & Sep 1st Corn Conditions
This piece looks at U.S. corn crop conditions as of July 1 and September 1, the percent change between the two dates and also plots how final U.S. corn yields deviated from trend.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 11:02AM CDT 07/09/14 | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Monday 07/07/14

End of June Corn Crop Ratings for Top States
This piece looks at each of the top 18 states corn conditions as of June 29 for this year, the 1986-2013 average, the best June 29 rating from 1986 to 2014, and the 2014 rating as a % of the 1986-2013 average.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 9:03AM CDT 07/07/14 | Post a Comment
Comments (2)
OK, enough with the big corn and soybean crops. We get it. Our only hope for decent commodity prices is a disaster. How low will the USDA push these prices? That's the real question right now.
Posted by DAVID/KEVIN GRUENHAGEN at 9:19PM CDT 07/08/14
Storage looks to be the short term salvation for the expected big corn crop. Larger term price support could come with South American acreage projections toward the end of our harvest this fall. These "low" prices do not provide incentive for acreage expansion. Brazil looks to be expanding domestic consumption at the expense of their exports. (Other countries will look to do the same. May will look to take advantage of "high" livestock prices and "cheap" feed. The demand for course grains for feed will be moving higher. This should provide increased demand for US corn.) China has the potential to maintain imports levels of past years. Argentina's economic position may hold corn production at current levels - at best. These things provide an opportunity for US corn exports to move to record levels especially if wheat hold a superior price position to corn. By spring of next year, prices might move higher with the expectation of this new level of demand in 2015-16.
Posted by Freeport IL at 2:15PM CDT 07/09/14
 

Tuesday 07/01/14

June 22 Soybean Crop Ratings vs. Final Yields
The accompanying graphic looks at national soybean crop conditions as of June 22nd going back to 1986 and compares the crop rating and combined percent in either good or excellent condition to the percent that final yields deviate from the 1986-2013 trend.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 1:06PM CDT 07/01/14 | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 
Soybean Meal-Corn Ratio
This graphic shows the soybean meal/corn ratio on a per ton basis with the average and plus and minus one and two standard deviation lines.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 10:20AM CDT 07/01/14 | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Friday 06/20/14

July Temps in IA & IL Following "Wet" June
This piece looks at the history of July temperatures for both Iowa and Illinois following "wet" Junes since 1950.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 7:44AM CDT 06/20/14 | Post a Comment
Comments (2)
How about a comparison of % of trend yields in wet vs other years? Isn't that ultimately more important than just July temps? Interesting and useful study since the market will react to July temps even though July temps may not have much effect on final yields?
Posted by FRED DAUME at 4:37PM CDT 06/24/14
US corn yields, on harvested acres, over the last 40 years tend to be within the range of 100% to 105% of trend line 35% of the time. Yields have been below trend 37.5% of the time and over 105% of trend 27.5% of the time. A very simple model can be made where good and excellent corn condition rating is compared to ending US corn yield as a percent of trend line yield. The latest weighted 18 state percent in good and excellent condition was 74%. When a plus or minus 5% error factor was used to provide a range of possible outcomes, one finds US yields have been in a range of 93% to 113% of trend line yield when the good and excellent rating has been from 69% to 79%. The mid-point yield is 102% with an average of 104%. The CME Dec options and the June WADSE projections for the 2014-15 corn marketing year were reviewed to see what the possible implication might be for price. These combined projections seem to indicate about a 50% chance Dec CME corn prices at expiration will range from $4.20 to $4.50 per bushel. There seems to be a 20% chance of closing below $4.20 and a 30% chance of being over $4.50. (This means, as things stand now, there looks to be a 70% chance of closing Dec future below $4.50.) Our WAG (wild ass guess) seems to indicate less down side risk and potentially more upside possibilities than generally heard on the "street/coffee shop". The June report numbers could change these projections very easily. Freeport, IL
Posted by Freeport IL at 4:37PM CDT 06/25/14
 

Friday 06/13/14

December Soybean Meal Seasonality
The accompanying graphic portrays the seasonality of December soybean meal futures.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 7:23AM CDT 06/13/14 | Post a Comment
Comments (2)
December meal closed at 385.90 on May 13th. This Friday it closed at 396.70. Not expecting a big crop...yet, according to the market.
Posted by Brandon Butler at 2:41PM CDT 06/13/14
interesting.
Posted by MIKE OWEN at 12:18PM CDT 06/16/14
 

Wednesday 06/11/14

Seasonality of December Corn Futures
The accompanying graphics show contrasting views of corn seasonality.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 10:43AM CDT 06/11/14 | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Wednesday 06/04/14

History of Initial USDA Corn Ratings
This graphic shows corn crop ratings and how final yields deviated from the 25 year trend.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 9:37AM CDT 06/04/14 | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
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Recent Blog Posts
  • USDA August Soybean Yield Estimates
  • New Crop Soybean Meal Sales
  • MN Corn Ear/Plant Ratio
  • 7/20 Corn Conditions vs. August Yield Estimates
  • IL July Temps vs. Corn Ear Weight
  • Nov Bean/Dec Corn Price Ratio
  • Corn States Setting Record High Yields
  • July 1st & Sep 1st Corn Conditions
  • End of June Corn Crop Ratings for Top States
  • June 22 Soybean Crop Ratings vs. Final Yields
  • Soybean Meal-Corn Ratio
  • July Temps in IA & IL Following "Wet" June
  • December Soybean Meal Seasonality
  • Seasonality of December Corn Futures
  • History of Initial USDA Corn Ratings
  • Price Action of 25 Top Commodities
  • MN & ND Corn Planting History
  • Corn Price & Ratings Changes Between Memorial Day & 4th of July
  • What is Fueling the ND Corn/Soybean Surge?
  • Soybean Stocks to Use Ratios