Fundamentally Speaking
Joel Karlin DTN Contributing Analyst

Friday 08/29/14

Labor Day Corn Crop Ratings
Assuming crop conditions stay at least steady the last week of August, which seems reasonable given excellent rainfall and continued moderate temperatures, that rating would be the highest as of September 1st since 1994.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 7:13AM CDT 08/29/14 by Joel Karlin | Post a Comment
Comments (1)
rasing conditions this late is crazy if true lot of late corn that wont make it.
Posted by andrew mohlman at 3:38PM CDT 08/29/14
 

Wednesday 08/27/14

IL July Temps vs. Corn Ear Weights
A scatterplot showing the implied ear weight of Illinois corn vs. average July temperature in degrees Fahrenheit.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 8:46AM CDT 08/27/14 by Joel Karlin | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Monday 08/25/14

Change in Soybean Crop Conditions vs. Yield Revisions
A scatterplot of the percent change in soybean crop conditions from Aug 1 to Oct 1 vs. percent change in USDA soybean yield from August to final report.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 9:54AM CDT 08/25/14 by Joel Karlin | Post a Comment
Comments (1)
Where does the sds come in to play in this market?
Posted by Michael Graves at 9:46PM CDT 08/27/14
 

Friday 08/22/14

July 2014 Precipitation in Top Corn States
July 2014 precipitation in inches for the top 18 corn producing states for July 2014, how each states rain totals were as a percent of the 1950-2013 average and the percentile rank of July 2014 precipitation using the 1950-2014 range.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 7:54AM CDT 08/22/14 by Joel Karlin | Post a Comment
Comments (2)
looking at brown leaves and barren stalks I can tell you for sure it is a fact you are totally wrong. Same old song and dance how great the corn is gets old. crop tour just as well been done from there desk. consumers should pay for cost of production not gov uncle sam will never get out of hole. media must be in market
Posted by andrew mohlman at 8:30AM CDT 08/22/14
I have to agree.Don't know what part of Michigan you looked at, but we are 4.25 in. below normal and no rain in July.Creeks have been dry since June, last good rain we had was June 25th. Tell me why pro farmer crop tour followed the same path across cornbelt as the rain did?
Posted by Raymond Simpkins at 10:34AM CDT 08/26/14
 

Thursday 08/21/14

July 2014 Readings in Top Corn States
This graphic shows those readings and the 1950-2013 average on the left hand axis while the right hand axis shows the July percentile ranking using the 1950-2014 data.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 8:20AM CDT 08/21/14 | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Thursday 08/07/14

August 1st Soybean Ratings
This graphic shows the condition of each of the top 18 states as of August 1st, the average of August 1 conditions for each of the top states using 1986-2013 data, and what percentile this year's August 1 rating is in relation to the 1986-2014 data.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 9:18AM CDT 08/07/14 | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Wednesday 08/06/14

August 1st Corn Ratings
This graphic shows the condition of each of the top 18 states as of August 1st, the average of August 1 conditions for each of the top states using 1986-2013 data, and what percentile this year's August 1 rating is in relation to the 1986-2014 data.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 10:18AM CDT 08/06/14 | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Friday 08/01/14

USDA August Soybean Yield Estimates
This graphic shows national soybean crop ratings as of July 27th vs. the percent that the USDA's August soybean yield estimate deviated from the 1986-2013 trend of USDA August soybean yield estimates.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 7:42AM CDT 08/01/14 | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Wednesday 07/30/14

New Crop Soybean Meal Sales
The accompanying chart shows new crop U.S. soybean meal sales on the books as of the third week of July going back a number of years in short tons.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 9:50AM CDT 07/30/14 | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Thursday 07/24/14

MN Corn Ear/Plant Ratio
This graphic is a scatterplot showing the corn ear/plant ratio going across the x-axis for the state of Minnesota vs. average July temperatures going up the y-axis in degrees Fahrenheit.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 9:34AM CDT 07/24/14 | Post a Comment
Comments (4)
two ears in a turned dry end of season worse than one. plant had too big idea like everybody else looks likley from here
Posted by andrew mohlman at 4:17PM CDT 07/24/14
I don;t know what part of the state your seeing these two ears,in sc minnesota,just a few fields that were planted early are even tasseling,and theres alot that won;t till mid Aug.,,and this is a very laege area this is happening to.Ive heard on the radio talk of 180,,totally not happening,if no frost till Oct 15,i;ll go with 149,,a frost the 20th of sept.,many fields won;t make grain,,
Posted by TERRY PIOSKE at 9:08AM CDT 07/25/14
As of July 27th, 61 % of the corn in Minnesota was tasseling. Thats plenty of acres to get a good idea of how many stalks have two ears.
Posted by BURNELL KELLER at 7:31PM CDT 07/28/14
A major frost event would be needed to change to fundamental outlook for the corn market. A model was developed to look at the possible frost impact on North Dakota corn yields and resulting reduction to US production. There appears to be about a 50% chance (1 in 2 years) of a yield reduction of 15% from lower test weight. This would reduce US production by about 0.8 bushels per acre. The model indicates a 25% chance (1 in 4 years) of a 20% North Dakota yield reduction and a 10% chance (1 in 10 years) of a 50% yield reduction. The highest level of damage would result in US production decline of around 3 bushels per acre. This is less than the "talked about" increase in US yield estimates when compared with the July WADSE yield projections for the 2014-15 marketing year. So the ending balance would likely end up higher then the current "street" estimates with the generally "good" growing condition of the US corn crop even with a major killing frost in North Dakota. Another state, like Minnesota, Michigan or Wisconsin, or a 1974 like event would be needed to have severe enough damage to change the US balance sheet enough to rally prices to the pre- June 30th level. Frost damage (light corn) does result in increased usage for ethanol plant and feed consumption. That increased consumption is hard to quantify - at least for us - and is not included in the balance sheet calculations. An ethanol plant that uses corn with a 20% reduction in test weight, from frost damage, might be required to use 11% more corn by weight or 38% by volume to net the same production target. The "light" corn would produce more ddgs - may be as much as 40% more than frost free corn - thus changing feed consumption and may be exports. Many corn fed species will require more pounds of frost damaged feed to have the same gain as "normal" grain but that may be partly or fully met by more available ddgs. The "market" is generally "slow" to see the increased demand side of frost damaged corn but it seems a wide spread event will be needed to cause much "stronger" prices in the long run. Freeport, IL
Posted by Freeport IL at 11:55AM CDT 07/31/14
 

Wednesday 07/23/14

7/20 Corn Conditions vs. August Yield Estimates
This graphic shows national crop ratings as of July 20 vs. the percent that the USDA's August corn yield estimate deviated from the 1980-2013 trend of USDA August corn yield estimates.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 10:20AM CDT 07/23/14 | Post a Comment
Comments (1)
Why are there more dots then years? I count 28 dots for supposedly 23 years.
Posted by Unknown at 12:10PM CDT 07/23/14
 

Friday 07/18/14

IL July Temps vs. Corn Ear Weight
This chart is a scatterplot of average Illinois July temperatures vs. the implied or derived corn ear weight in pounds.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 7:22AM CDT 07/18/14 | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Wednesday 07/16/14

Nov Bean/Dec Corn Price Ratio
This piece looks at the SX/CZ ratio as of July 15th going back to 1985 and compares the price ratio that day with the difference between the July WASDE new crop corn stocks to use ratio vs. the new crop soybean stocks to use ratio.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 10:00AM CDT 07/16/14 | Post a Comment
Comments (2)
It has stayed stubbornly high for quite a long time now...as we move thru July, this corn crop will likely be "made" as July is the key month for corn pollination. If for some reason it would get dry in August, the key month for beans, the SX/CZ ration could actually move higher! But with all things being equal - assuming the weather continues - you would think the ratio would have to come down. Just haven't seen it yet, including this week, when it has moved higher yet again.
Posted by Peter Smith at 9:12AM CDT 07/17/14
An higher the ratio goes...almost daily. The corn crop is made, and the market has doubts about the 415 million bu carryover numbers for soybean stocks next year.
Posted by Peter Smith at 12:15PM CDT 07/24/14
 

Thursday 07/10/14

Corn States Setting Record High Yields
The accompanying graphic shows since 1981 the number of the top 18 producing states that saw record high state yields in an individual year vs. the percent that final national corn yields deviated from the 30 year trend.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 10:55AM CDT 07/10/14 | Post a Comment
Comments (5)
over blown bs need to quit growing for a year to shut some mouths.cost of production should matter in long run it will or were all in trouble
Posted by andrew mohlman at 7:43AM CDT 07/14/14
In 1985 the U.S. corn carryout was about 4.04B bu. after already having the PIK program - paying people not to grow corn! In 1986 it grew to 4.88B and in 1987 it was 4.26B! The nearby late summer price range was $1.42 to $2.03 (from USDA balance sheet)! You've got it Andrew and nobody is worried about it but you and me! That's what this thing could become in the next year or two and it will be ugly! Oh by the way - $400 seed and 300 bpa won't fix it! Only more demand will! Take care!
Posted by Roger Cooper at 9:00AM CDT 07/14/14
were did all that corn go roger this country likes its corn
Posted by andrew mohlman at 8:19AM CDT 07/16/14
Unfortunately Andrew, droughts are about the only thing in our long range plan that gets rid of too much corn. Thank the Man for Ethanol - used about 5B bu. for that last year! Can you imagine staring at a 7B+ carryout and the price that would create! End users would be happy, happy, happy! They don't want the grain guy making any big profits!
Posted by Roger Cooper at 11:36AM CDT 07/16/14
Unfortunately Andrew, droughts are about the only thing in our long range plan that gets rid of too much corn. Thank the Man for Ethanol - used about 5B bu. for that last year! Can you imagine staring at a 7B+ carryout and the price that would create! End users would be happy, happy, happy! They don't want the grain guy making any big profits!
Posted by Roger Cooper at 11:36AM CDT 07/16/14
 

Wednesday 07/09/14

July 1st & Sep 1st Corn Conditions
This piece looks at U.S. corn crop conditions as of July 1 and September 1, the percent change between the two dates and also plots how final U.S. corn yields deviated from trend.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 11:02AM CDT 07/09/14 | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
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Recent Blog Posts
  • Labor Day Corn Crop Ratings
  • IL July Temps vs. Corn Ear Weights
  • Change in Soybean Crop Conditions vs. Yield Revisions
  • July 2014 Precipitation in Top Corn States
  • July 2014 Readings in Top Corn States
  • August 1st Soybean Ratings
  • August 1st Corn Ratings
  • USDA August Soybean Yield Estimates
  • New Crop Soybean Meal Sales
  • MN Corn Ear/Plant Ratio
  • 7/20 Corn Conditions vs. August Yield Estimates
  • IL July Temps vs. Corn Ear Weight
  • Nov Bean/Dec Corn Price Ratio
  • Corn States Setting Record High Yields
  • July 1st & Sep 1st Corn Conditions
  • End of June Corn Crop Ratings for Top States
  • June 22 Soybean Crop Ratings vs. Final Yields
  • Soybean Meal-Corn Ratio
  • July Temps in IA & IL Following "Wet" June
  • December Soybean Meal Seasonality