Fundamentally Speaking
Joel Karlin DTN Contributing Analyst

Friday 08/28/15

Stock Market Influence on Commodity Prices
Coefficient of correlation for commodities measured against the daily movements of the cash S&P 500 index.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 7:10AM CDT 08/28/15 by Joel Karlin | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Thursday 08/27/15

Week 33 Soybean Ratings
Soybean crop ratings for the top 18 growing states for the 33rd week of the year (that usually corresponds to the middle of August).[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 1:00PM CDT 08/27/15 by Joel Karlin | Post a Comment
Comments (1)
US harvested acre soybean yield appears to be about 6% over an August trend line yield. Historically when all years are reviewed, the low, mid-point, average and high percent change to the November estimate are -16%, 2%, 1% and 10% respectfully. When yields are limited to 4% to 8% over August trend line (a 2% spread on each side of the 6% over August Trend Line of the August estimated yield) the results are -7%, -1%, 0% and 10%. This limited range occurred a quarter of the time and saw yield declines from the August yield estimates about two thirds of the time. So there seems to be a bias for high August US soybean yield estimates to decrease in yield to the November estimate. The November CME options on soybeans seems to be giving about a 20% chance (1 in 5 years) of seeing a $9.00 or better November CME futures price at options expiration (October 23). Freeport, IL
Posted by Freeport IL at 10:46PM CDT 08/27/15
 

Wednesday 08/26/15

Week 33 Corn Ratings
Relative crop ratings for the top 18 producing states for week 33 (which is usually around the middle of August).[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 10:41AM CDT 08/26/15 by Joel Karlin | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Tuesday 08/25/15

USDA August Corn & Bean Yield Estimates
USDA August 2015 yield projections for top corn and soybean producing states and the U.S. as a percent of the 25 year trend.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 9:57AM CDT 08/25/15 by Joel Karlin | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Wednesday 08/12/15

Rainfall, Temps in Top Corn, Soy States
July 2015 rainfall as a percent of the 30 year July average precipitation, the difference between July 2015 temperatures and the 30 year July average temperature and the end of July Palmer Drought Severity Index for the top corn and soybean producing states.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 10:20AM CDT 08/12/15 by Joel Karlin | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Friday 08/07/15

End of July Soybean Crop Conditions
Soybean crop ratings as of end of July for top 18 states and U.S. looking at 2015 ratings, 2014 ratings and 2015 rating as a percent of the 1986-2014 average.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 7:46AM CDT 08/07/15 by Joel Karlin | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Wednesday 08/05/15

End of July Corn Crop Conditions
End of July corn crop ratings for this year, last year and this year as a percent of the 1986-2014 average.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 9:49AM CDT 08/05/15 by Joel Karlin | Post a Comment
Comments (2)
Does anyone else find it odd that when any of the states listed with good crops this year,have bad crops it doesn't matter because they do not grow enough. But this year they are going to save all the I states.
Posted by Raymond Simpkins at 5:15PM CDT 08/05/15
So how many acres of corn are in the "garden spots" of Minnesota, Tennessee and Pennsylvania vs. the states that are showing dramatic declines ( Illinois, Indiana, Ohio and Missouri )?
Posted by Greg Schipull at 10:47PM CDT 08/05/15
 

Friday 07/31/15

Late July Export Pace for Corn & Beans
New crop corn and soybean export sales as of the fourth week of July as a percent of the July USDA WASDE export projection.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 4:00PM CDT 07/31/15 by Joel Karlin | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Thursday 07/30/15

Slowing Chinese Feed Demand
Chinese feed consumption of key commodities corn and soybean meal are running at some of their slowest paces for years.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 9:34AM CDT 07/30/15 by Joel Karlin | Post a Comment
Comments (1)
The bullish optimism of continued dollar strength seems to be waning. This resist change in opinion may change the view of a potential drop in the Brazilian Real of 20%. A currency change of this level might bring short term opportunities for US farmers with very negative longer term results. This is one of your bearish stories. China is a very larger ship running at one half full. It will take a while for her to change direction. Argentina, Brazil, Russia and most of Europe are dead in the water. Their direction is assumed but unknown. The shell game seems to have us looking in the wrong place. Our guess is; "The pea is not under China." Freeport, IL
Posted by Freeport IL at 12:50PM CDT 07/30/15
 

Thursday 07/23/15

Week 29 Corn Crop Conditions, Yield Deviations
Corn crop conditions as of the 29th week of the year (the third week in July) vs. the percent that each state's corn yield has also deviated from the 1986-2014 trend.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 10:20AM CDT 07/23/15 by Joel Karlin | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Wednesday 07/22/15

Week 29 Corn Ratings vs. Final Yield Deviation
U.S. crop conditions as of week 29 (this week) vs. the percent that final national corn yields deviated from the 30 year trend.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 10:45AM CDT 07/22/15 by Joel Karlin | Post a Comment
Comments (1)
Ya whatever
Posted by Raymond Simpkins at 9:53PM CDT 07/22/15
 

Friday 07/17/15

Corn Crop Ratings vs. Yield Correlations
Correlation coefficient for corn crop ratings at the end of July, end of August and end of September vs. the percent that final corn yields deviated from the 1986-2014 trend.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 7:56AM CDT 07/17/15 by Joel Karlin | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Wednesday 07/15/15

June 2015 Rainfall for Top Corn, Soybean States
June 2015 precipitation in inches for the top 21 corn and soybean producing states, amount of precipitation last month as a percent of the 1950-2014 June rainfall average and the highest amount of June precipitation any of these states have had since 1950.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 9:54AM CDT 07/15/15 by Joel Karlin | Post a Comment
Comments (2)
We use a model based on Dec CME option values merged with WASDE estimates to develop a feel for US yield prospects versus current futures price. This model has a rather large error. The current environment points to a US harvested acre yield of 151 to 162 to support a $4.50 Dec CME price. One might call it; "Trend yield or below". Models by others tend to show current US yield at trend or higher. Our inclination is to agree with those models at this time. Profitable outcomes for our model - northwestern Illinois farm -with current conditions are dependent upon high pre-harvest sales and a mid-point or above relative farm yield or a relatively low cost structure. Crop insurance looks - this year and on the model farm - to be only a positive factor in the very low relative farm yields. (Many will find this statement totally untrue for their operations.) ARC county shows be a positive factor and should help add to income. (Some very high yielding counties, mainly in the western corn-belt may not find this to be true.) We still have a long way to go. Selling $4.50 corn on the board does not assure profits -at this time- for the Northwestern Illinois farm used in the model. The main point is lower US yield prospects appear to be needed (from the model) than currently projected to support current prices. Freeport, IL
Posted by Freeport IL at 10:08PM CDT 07/16/15
Chart is not very accurate, we had 6in. out of one storm alone here in Michigan. Your graph only shows 4in. for the month. Same with Ohio,there were areas that got more than 8in. out of same storm. If that is showing averages it don't mean much.
Posted by Raymond Simpkins at 10:11PM CDT 07/19/15
 

Friday 07/10/15

Early July Corn Ratings
IL, IN & OH corn crop ratings as of July 5th with final trends.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 7:21AM CDT 07/10/15 by Joel Karlin | Post a Comment
Comments (1)
I am sure there is a lot of Ill. Oh. and Ind. producers laughing at U.S.D.A. this morning.Good to excellent corn maybe 30-40 percent in all three states.I don't know how much of these crops you have ever seen but they do not recover. Nitrogen is gone,diseases set in,it don't root down and will soon blow over. Corn like what I seen for 1100 miles though the heart of the corn belt will be lucky to average 130 bu. Will see how far off I and U.S.D.A are. I don't think you can compare todays growers to 10-15 years ago either. Back then a guy might try to save a crop with extra inputs,but not now!Let crop insurance kick in.
Posted by Raymond Simpkins at 12:06PM CDT 07/10/15
 

Tuesday 07/07/15

Early July Corn & Bean Ratings Above Average
Corn and soybean crop conditions as of July 5th over the past 30 years.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 10:23AM CDT 07/07/15 by Joel Karlin | Post a Comment
Comments (3)
Really,are you kidding!!!You guys are living in a dream world,you need to get out of the office. USDA can stick their rating system. You brought up 2012 and I believe that year actual yields were off 21 bu. after harvest ,So how good is their rating? Bare corn fields don't yield well. Get in contact with growers in Ind. Oh.and Ill.and see what they have. We have very good corn in a small area but the beans suck. Someone needs to show me how corn conditions can improve in a week of heavy rain. The stunted yellow corn will never improve with nitrogen lost and roots standing in water. We've had corn like that before and it does not recover even with normal weather the rest of the season. I for one am going to wait to price this crop.
Posted by Raymond Simpkins at 4:57PM CDT 07/07/15
This years crop has a lot of problems, soybean growth is way behind average, corn fields have a lot of holes in them!
Posted by HARLEY DRAKE at 7:52AM CDT 07/09/15
I am with Raymond. Got unsold old crop and bin space to carry to next year. Can remember 95/96. Wet trending year but no prevent planting causing concern. Market and USDA thinks rain makes grain, however, the saying "Worry to death in a dry year, starve to death in a wet". Second year with bins in 95/96, harvest price, if I remember correctly, sub $3.00. Was not until the spring when low production became apparent. Sold 5.93 beans in Feb, 5.35 corn in May! Paid for bin twice! Only takes a couple of weeks of wet weather at the right time to cause big losses, had that last year. Wet here in Delaware.
Posted by Fred Stites at 2:45PM CDT 07/09/15
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Recent Blog Posts
  • Stock Market Influence on Commodity Prices
  • Week 33 Soybean Ratings
  • Week 33 Corn Ratings
  • USDA August Corn & Bean Yield Estimates
  • Rainfall, Temps in Top Corn, Soy States
  • End of July Soybean Crop Conditions
  • End of July Corn Crop Conditions
  • Late July Export Pace for Corn & Beans
  • Slowing Chinese Feed Demand
  • Week 29 Corn Crop Conditions, Yield Deviations
  • Week 29 Corn Ratings vs. Final Yield Deviation
  • Corn Crop Ratings vs. Yield Correlations
  • June 2015 Rainfall for Top Corn, Soybean States
  • Early July Corn Ratings
  • Early July Corn & Bean Ratings Above Average
  • Corn Yields Can Hold Despite Heavy Rains
  • New Crop U.S. Corn Export Sales
  • World Oilseed Supplies at All-Time High
  • New Crop Soybean Export Sales as of Mid-June
  • Effect of Heavy Spring Rains on KS & MO Soybean Yield