Fundamentally Speaking
Joel Karlin DTN Contributing Analyst

Wednesday 04/16/14

Oct-Mar Rainfall for Key HRW States
The dearth of moisture over the past few months is plotted in the accompanying graphic that shows cumulative October-March precipitation in inches for the top three hard red producing states in the Southern Plains of Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 9:53AM CDT 04/16/14 | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Thursday 04/10/14

Last Fall, First Spring Winter Wheat Ratings
This piece looks at the last fall and first spring NASS ratings for the U.S. winter wheat crop and compares that to how the first yield report given in the May production report deviates from the long-term trend for final yields.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 9:53AM CDT 04/10/14 | Post a Comment
Comments (1)
There is some follow through to final hard red winter wheat yields as well. In index years below your spring index of 600, harvest acre yields, on a percent of trend line basis, were on average 12% below the "good" years (90.0% of trend). The planted acre yields were 21% behind (83.5% of trend). So not only is final bushels per acre lost, there is a loss in harvested acres. Freeport, IL
Posted by Freeport IL at 9:18AM CDT 04/11/14
 

Wednesday 04/09/14

Corn, Soybean Seeding Trends
The accompanying graphic shows the combined 2014 corn and soybean planted acreage for the top 15 producing states of both.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 7:47AM CDT 04/09/14 | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Wednesday 04/02/14

Record First Half 2013/14 US Corn Use
This piece shows U.S. corn utilization for the first half of the marketing year (Sep-Mar) in billion bushels and as a percent of the prior year's first half usage.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 8:04AM CDT 04/02/14 | Post a Comment
Comments (2)
A look at the usage versus the average price during the period might prove very interesting. It certainly should show if it was the main cause of the usage being 20+% higher than last year's Sep to Mar.
Posted by Kenneth Clark at 1:26PM CDT 04/02/14
We had lots of cheap corn to sell! It still works! Thank the Lord for ethanol production!
Posted by Roger Cooper at 5:27PM CDT 04/05/14
 

Friday 03/28/14

IL April Weather Conditions Impact on Corn Seedings
This piece looks at the percent of Illinois corn planted by April 30 over past thirty years vs. deviation of average Illinois April temperatures and precipitation.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 8:05AM CDT 03/28/14 | Post a Comment
Comments (1)
Another plot for your graph would be Average Yield or % of trend yield for each of those years.
Posted by Mr. Brandy at 2:17PM CDT 03/31/14
 

Monday 03/24/14

Corn Plantings, Soybean Seedings
The accompanying graphic shows since 1986 the percent of the U.S. corn crop planted by May 5 and the percent of U.S. soybean seeded by June 5.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 12:45PM CDT 03/24/14 | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Thursday 03/20/14

Change in Planted Acreage for Corn & Soybeans
This graphic shows the five year average percent change in planted acreage from the March intentions report to the final figures that are contained in the annual crop production report released the following January for the top 21 corn and soybean producing states.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 10:05AM CDT 03/20/14 | Post a Comment
Comments (1)
What I do not understand is that 80 to 90% of all farmers have purchased all their corn and bean seed before dec 1st. Why is never a report from pioneer or Monsanto on how much of each they have sold. To me sounds like a conspiracy. Let me know your comments. Thanks for your time.
Posted by Bradley Johnson at 9:28PM CDT 03/23/14
 

Thursday 03/13/14

U.S. Corn Feed Use
This graphic shows the Sep-Nov feed usage as a percent of the USDA January WASDE feed estimate, Dec-Feb feed use as a percent of the April WASDE feed projection, and finally first half feed use (Sep-Mar) as a percent of the April WASDE feed estimate.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 9:36AM CDT 03/13/14 | Post a Comment
Comments (6)
USDA's feed and residual use of corn has seemed doable for all the reasons noted in this post. Even after Purdue projected a 3% drop in the number of hogs going to market because of PED, it seemed heavier hogs could eat the feed left by fewer numbers. That may have changed with some folks talking about a 13% drop in the number of head going to market this summer. It seems unlikely that drop in the number of head going to market can be made up by heavier weights because of the loss in carcass quality - to much fat. (There is also an issue of large hogs dragging on the floor when placed on the rail in some slaughter plants.) We might be loosing over 10 million bushels a month from PED even with heavier weights if the level of PED damage is as advertised. Freeport, IL
Posted by Freeport IL at 10:26AM CDT 03/14/14
Strong first quarter corn feed use was just refilling of an empty pipeline from 2012 drought, not actual consumption. No way corn feed use increases 22 percent with cattle and hog numbers this low and an increase in ddgs production. Adjustments will be made later and corn for feed will be cut sharply with this years ending stocks pushed above 2 billion bu. and $3.50 corn by summer. With a good corn crop this year next years ending stocks will rise above 3 billion and $3.00 corn
Posted by Jason Billenstein at 9:15AM CDT 03/16/14
Corn end stocks have only been above 2B twice in the past 20+ years! Your 3B number should take corn to the lowest price in over 20 years! It was also the coldest winter on record in lots of places! Live animals needed more energy to survive that!
Posted by Roger Cooper at 9:22AM CDT 03/17/14
We feed a lot of hogs on our operation all in temperature controlled barns as most are today and this winters cold hadno iimpact on feed efficiency. Also, due to much improved genetics we can raise our hogs to 300lbs with less corn than it took to get them to 250 twenty years ago. And they maintain the same leanness whether we market them at 300 or 250. I agree that cattle take more feed in cold weather, but that's offset by fewer animals. If corn feed increases a more realistic 10% ending stocks easily go to 2b.
Posted by Jason Billenstein at 3:26PM CDT 03/18/14
Next year's carryover could go to 3b if we have a record crop this year it would be about the same stocks to use ratio as twenty years ago and $3 would be about the same price in today's dollars.
Posted by Jason Billenstein at 3:35PM CDT 03/18/14
What is the likelihood, from the fundamental point of view, the CME's Dec 2015 corn price (two years out) will be under the current level of $4.85 per bushel at the expiration of the contract? Many assumptions are needed to make this WAG (wild ass guess). The first assumption is ending corn stocks of 1.45 billion bushel will hold the Dec 2015 contract at expiration to a $4.85 price. (The March 2014 corn contract showed the error in that assumption. The contract price has been $0.40 lower to $0.05 higher from that $4.85 level with about same projected ending position.) Corn acres planted for both years needs to be assumed. Ninety two (92) million acres was used for 2014-15 and a sliding level from 88 to 97 million acres was used for 2015-16 depending on 2014-15 ending balance. The lower the 2014-15 ending balance becomes the higher 2015-16 planted acres are assumed. A relationship between planted and harvested acres needs to be established. Corn use for 2014-15 and 2015-16 needs to be assumed. The higher the level of use that is inputted the greater the chance of higher prices. A level of 13.5 billion bushels for 2014-15 and 13.6 billion bushels for 2015-16 was used. A forty year detrended US corn yields is assumed to represent the potential corn yields for both years. The highest chance (as the level of inputted 2014-15 production changes, the 2015-16 projections change) of CME's Dec 2015 contract closing out above $4.85, with these assumptions, is less than 20% (1 in 5). That does not mean prices will not be higher between now and December 2015. In fact there appears to be about a 35% chance of December 2014 closing above this level. Frayne Olson's, North Dakota State University agricultural economist, advice maybe wise given these projections. He is quoted as saying; "Producers need to start thinking about marketing more than one crop year during price spikes." If the above calculations and assumption are close to reality, the greater than 80% (4 in 5) chance of the Dec 2015 CME contract closing out below $4.85 might be additional motivation to move to Olson way of thinking. Those following his advise will want to be mindful of input cost. Freeport, IL
Posted by Freeport IL at 9:51AM CDT 03/25/14
 

Monday 03/10/14

End of Feb Corn Exported & Shipped
This graphic shows the amount of U.S. corn sold and shipped at the end of February as a percent of the USDA's February export projection and then the amount of corn shipped from the beginning of March to the end of the marketing year August 31 in million bushels.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 9:09AM CDT 03/10/14 | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Thursday 03/06/14

U.S. Soybean Export Shipments
This graphic looks at the amount of soybeans shipped from the third week of February to the end of the marketing year in August and shows that since 1986 the least mount shipped is 185 million bushels.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 8:34AM CST 03/06/14 | Post a Comment
Comments (2)
Excellent piece as always Joel. In your discussion that sales are 106% of USDA's February projection, the highest at this time on record, I also noticed that it is the only occurence of total sales being above 100% at this point of the marketing year. In your opinion, what could this project to for export demand in 2013-2014 given average shipments over the last half of the marketing year?
Posted by DARIN NEWSOM at 11:15AM CST 03/06/14
Hello Darin. Average shipments from the 3rd week of February to the end of the marketing year since 1986 have averaged 326 million bushels and the ten year average is 380 million. Taking out today's 43 million bushels shipped for the latest reporting week leaves 337 million bushels to be shipped on average using the last ten year's worth of data. Add that to the cumulative shipped total this year of 1.366 billion results in a projected total shipped figure of 1.703 billion bushels, 193 million above the last USDA estimate of 1.510 billion. This leaves the USDA in a real box for at most maybe 15 million bushels can be cut from the residual (resulting in a negative figure) and maybe imports can be increased 5-10 million. Fact is that crush margins remain at record high levels for this time of year suggesting the processing figure cannot be pared and even if the 2013 crop is higher than posted, that will not be changed till September 30.
Posted by JOEL KARLIN at 12:07PM CST 03/06/14
 

Tuesday 03/04/14

Ukraine Wheat & Corn Poduction, Exports
The accompanying graphic shows Ukraine corn and wheat production and exports as percent of world total.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 8:43AM CST 03/04/14 | Post a Comment
Comments (2)
Corn there would be non-gmo?
Posted by Kevin Brockwell at 5:28AM CST 03/05/14
The potential increase of US corn exports for the 2014-15 marketing year will depend on the level of production of our major competitors: Argentina, Brazil and Ukraine. These three countries have had an average rolling production increase of 7.6% for the last ten years. Problems within Ukraine will not guarantee an increase in exports for the US unless production in the South American countries comes off their trend line pace. USDA is projecting a 2.7% production decline for the three countries when comparing 2012-13 with 2013-14. Should that decline carry into 2014-15, the US has a chance to export 2.3 billion bushels of corn. Our model indicates at the mid-point of 2014-15 trend production, for the three countries, we would export 1.4 billion bushels. The World's corn economics is changing - US corn exports could move higher. Freeport, IL
Posted by Freeport IL at 4:41PM CST 03/07/14
 

Friday 02/28/14

End of January Palmer Drought Readings
The accompanying graphic shows the end of January Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) readings vs. January 2013 readings for top corn and soybean states.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 8:10AM CST 02/28/14 | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Wednesday 02/26/14

USDA Acreage Estimates
This graphic shows the change in acreage from the USDA February Ag Outlook session to their end of March intention figures in 1000 acres.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 8:05AM CST 02/26/14 | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Friday 02/21/14

USDA Ag Outlook Farm Price Projections
The accompanying graphic shows the percent change in the USDA's average farm price projection from their February Ag Outlook session to the final figures.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 8:04AM CST 02/21/14 | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Thursday 02/20/14

Final U.S. Soybean Exports vs. February WASDE Projection
The accompanying chart shows U.S. soybean sales as of the first week in February as a percent of the Feb WASDE export projection and the change from that export projection to what final exports turn out to be in million bushels.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 10:42AM CST 02/20/14 | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
Blog Home Pages
January  2014
S M T W T F S
         1 2 3 4
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
12 13 14 15 16 17 18
19 20 21 22 23 24 25
26 27 28 29 30 31   
Subscribe to Fundamentally Speaking RSS
Recent Blog Posts
  • Oct-Mar Rainfall for Key HRW States
  • Last Fall, First Spring Winter Wheat Ratings
  • Corn, Soybean Seeding Trends
  • Record First Half 2013/14 US Corn Use
  • IL April Weather Conditions Impact on Corn Seedings
  • Corn Plantings, Soybean Seedings
  • Change in Planted Acreage for Corn & Soybeans
  • U.S. Corn Feed Use
  • End of Feb Corn Exported & Shipped
  • U.S. Soybean Export Shipments
  • Ukraine Wheat & Corn Poduction, Exports
  • End of January Palmer Drought Readings
  • USDA Acreage Estimates
  • USDA Ag Outlook Farm Price Projections
  • Final U.S. Soybean Exports vs. February WASDE Projection
  • Change in USDA Yield Forecasts
  • Soybean/Corn Average Farm Price Ratios
  • Corn Export Sales History
  • Estimated 2014 Trends for Corn
  • USDA Production Changes From Feb Outlook Sessions to Final Figures