Fundamentally Speaking
Joel Karlin DTN Contributing Analyst

Friday 03/06/15

5, 15 and 25 year acreage trends for corn
Corn planted acreage trends in top producing states and the U.S.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 7:18AM CST 03/06/15 by Joel Karlin | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Monday 03/02/15

Wheat Export Sales and Shipment History
Cumulative U.S. wheat sales and shipments as of the third week of February as a percent of the USDA February WASDE export projection.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 9:49AM CST 03/02/15 by Joel Karlin | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Wednesday 02/25/15

Acreage Changes from Outlook to Prospective Plantings Report
Difference between the USDA's first guess on how much of the three main crops -- corn, soybeans and all wheat -- farmers will plant to the prospective planting figures given at the end of March in 1000 acres.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 9:56AM CST 02/25/15 by Joel Karlin | Post a Comment
Comments (1)
Federal crop insurance is considered the prime risk management tool available to farmers. The product RP, revenue protection, provides protection of revenue from declining production and/or price. If one believes ending stocks has a relationship with CME futures price, CME option values can point to future price, corn use can be projected and historic farm/US yield relationship are repeatable, then one has a chance of handy capping the value of RP as a risk management tool. (It should be noted, at best, these numbers are educated guesses and are not expected to be accurate projections of the future.) RP pays an indemnity at the extreme lows in price and/or farm yield. Should this year's spring corn insurance price come in around $4.15 and planted corn acres come in around the 89 million acres projected at USDA's Ag Forum, then our handy capping places the indemnity/premium ratio squarely to the advantage of the insurance companies not the Stephenson County Illinois farmer. At 91 million planted corn acres it looks to be a push. (Another way to look at it; spring insurance price of $4.15 is $0.45 too low for 89 million planted acres of corn.) The next USDA look at prospective-planted acres will come after the March 16 insurance buying time: March 31 and June 30. If CME options can be used to develop future price/demand relationship then current prices and future price opportunities are currently underestimated at 89 million planted corn acres. Freeport, IL
Posted by Freeport IL at 1:32PM CST 02/27/15
 

Wednesday 02/18/15

U.S. Soybean Sales & Shipment History
Soybean sales and shipments as of the first week of February as a percent of the February soybean export projection and change in the USDA export projection from the Feb WASDE to the final export projection in million bushels.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 9:54AM CST 02/18/15 by Joel Karlin | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Tuesday 02/17/15

U.S. Corn Export History
U.S. corn export sales in million bushels as of the first week of February and those sales and the amount of corn actually shipped since the beginning of the marketing year September 1 as a percent of the February WASDE export projection.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 9:09AM CST 02/17/15 by Joel Karlin | Post a Comment
Comments (1)
Southern hemisphere weather is curtailing corn production in some areas. South Africa, for example, may be looking at reductions of 30% or more in some areas. This might cut their exports in half. They tend to export over 2 million metric ton. So this projected reduction might add demand 40 million bushels of additional demand into other markets. The potential of added demand has not shaken Gulf basis levels. That current level indicates our shippers currently have no desire to heat up grain flow. I hope your numbers are a better indication of the future. Freeport, IL
Posted by Freeport IL at 10:14AM CST 02/17/15
 

Monday 02/16/15

Corn Yields & Stocks Estimates
U.S. corn yield and ending stocks estimates given in the USDA's long-term baseline assumption (BL) for the first of the ten year forward projections vs. those two figures contained in the corn balance sheet given at the USDA's annual Ag Outlook Forum (AO) two weeks later.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 10:24AM CST 02/16/15 by Joel Karlin | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Wednesday 02/11/15

Soybean Yields & Growth for Top Producers
Soybean yields this past year for seven of the top producing countries reported in metric tons per hectare (MT/ha).[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 9:52AM CST 02/11/15 by Joel Karlin | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Friday 02/06/15

Corn Yields & Growth for Top Producers
Corn yields this past year for eight of the top producing countries or regions are reported in metric tons per hectare (MT/ha).[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 7:42AM CST 02/06/15 by Joel Karlin | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Wednesday 02/04/15

Wheat Yields & Growth Rates for Top Producers
Wheat yields this past year for nine of the top producing countries or regions in metric tons per hectare (mt/ha).[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 9:36AM CST 02/04/15 by Joel Karlin | Post a Comment
Comments (1)
The hard red winter wheat (HRWW); the "old" Kansas City Wheat, spread with soft red winter wheat (SRWW) will be interesting to watch. Should "green up" of SRWW reflect the late planting and poor emergence, the spread could/should be historically weak. A good looking SRWW crop this spring may result in a wider than normal price difference in the two classes of wheat. The wild card may be the willingness of growers to "ride" the risk a poor looking SRWW crop. The financial option to plant poor looking wheat fields to a more profitable alternative crop may not be available this spring. And some of the "new" APH rules might make it less detrimental to have a "bad" yield in ones data base. So some growers may go with the bird in hand â?“ so to speak. Minnesota's spring wheat contract; hard red spring wheat (HRSW), may experience the "normal" widening of spreads with HRWW this spring when/if planting progress has it "normal" rough road. One would not expect the price advantage to be too large for too long for SRSW with the benefit of the weaker Loonie spurring planting in the Canadian prairies. Freeport, IL
Posted by Freeport IL at 9:42AM CST 02/06/15
 

Monday 02/02/15

Prospective 2015/16 Soybean Stocks
Prospective 2015/16 U.S. soybean ending stocks with various planted acreage and yield scenarios.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 7:07AM CST 02/02/15 by Joel Karlin | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Friday 01/30/15

2015/16 Corn Ending Stocks Matrix
Prospective 2015/16 U.S. corn ending stocks figures based on various combinations of planted acreage numbers going across the x-axis in millions and yields going down the y-axis in bushels per acre (bpa).[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 7:18AM CST 01/30/15 by Joel Karlin | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Thursday 01/29/15

July Wheat-Corn Spread & History
July wheat-corn spread using 1990-2014 data for the five, fifteen and twenty-five year seasonal and what has occurred so far for the 2015 spread; all in dollars per bushel.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 8:39AM CST 01/29/15 by Joel Karlin | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Wednesday 01/28/15

U.S. Soybean Sales & Shipment Pace
Sales through 2nd week of Jan are at record high and 92% of Jan WASDE projection.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 9:17AM CST 01/28/15 by Joel Karlin | Post a Comment
Comments (2)
Thank you Joel for finally someone speaks the truth about South American production at the expense of the US producers. Now do not forget where would those countries be today without Monsanto etc. John Deere etc. and all the other US technologies they currently enjoy while cutting the throats of US farmers. Doom and gloom everyday in our USDA controlled markets. No matter what happens with weather in those countries there will always be "record yields" guarantees from the Almighty USDA reports.
Posted by DAVID/KEVIN GRUENHAGEN at 10:12AM CST 01/28/15
India may also increase their imports of raw oilseeds. They have increased import tax on edible oils and have the potential of dropping import tariff on oilseeds. They may want to increase oilseed processing to keep those processing margins at home. India is expected to import 1.93 million metric ton of soybean oil this marketing year. If policy changes are targeted at 100% domestic soybean oil production, about 370 million bushels of soybeans would need to be imported. The US seems best positioned for increase export demand with Brazil's limits on loading capacity and Argentina mainly exporting the processed products of meal and oil. (The US is expected to export 1,780 million bushel of soybeans and have a total use of 3,666 million bushels this marketing year.) India is currently an exporter of soybean meal. Any increase in soybean processing would like increase meal exports. The countries of Southeastern Asia currently are large importers of soybean meal. India's increase production, if it occurs, would most likely head there. (The percent of meal production that is export by country is expected to be about: US, 30%; Brazil, 49% and Argentina, 94%. Oil exports as a percent of production is expected to be about: US 10%; Brazil, 16% and Argentina, 60%.) Any changes, if they occur at all, will not occur overnight but it shows the future potential. Freeport, IL
Posted by Freeport IL at 9:50AM CST 01/29/15
 

Thursday 01/22/15

Record Global Yields of Top Crops
This graphic shows world yields of three of the planet's major crops including corn, wheat and soybeans since the 1961/62 season.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 10:32AM CST 01/22/15 by Joel Karlin | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Wednesday 01/14/15

Soybean Yields & Trends
Actual 2014 soybean yield in bushels per acre for the U.S. and the top producing states, that yield as a percent of the 20 year trend and this year's estimated 20 year trend yield.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 9:47AM CST 01/14/15 by Joel Karlin | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
Blog Home Pages
January  2014
S M T W T F S
         1 2 3 4
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
12 13 14 15 16 17 18
19 20 21 22 23 24 25
26 27 28 29 30 31   
Subscribe to Fundamentally Speaking RSS
Recent Blog Posts
  • 5, 15 and 25 year acreage trends for corn
  • Wheat Export Sales and Shipment History
  • Acreage Changes from Outlook to Prospective Plantings Report
  • U.S. Soybean Sales & Shipment History
  • U.S. Corn Export History
  • Corn Yields & Stocks Estimates
  • Soybean Yields & Growth for Top Producers
  • Corn Yields & Growth for Top Producers
  • Wheat Yields & Growth Rates for Top Producers
  • Prospective 2015/16 Soybean Stocks
  • 2015/16 Corn Ending Stocks Matrix
  • July Wheat-Corn Spread & History
  • U.S. Soybean Sales & Shipment Pace
  • Record Global Yields of Top Crops
  • Soybean Yields & Trends
  • Corn Yields & Trend
  • Changing Corn-Soybean Planted Area Ratios
  • USDA Feb Ag Outlook Yield Projections
  • Price Change & Volatility for 2014 Key Markets
  • Seasonal July-November Soybean Spread