Fundamentally Speaking
Joel Karlin DTN Contributing Analyst

Wednesday 09/24/14

Corn Prices Pressured by Record Yields
Corn situation bearish not only due to U.S. situation but also record world crop.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 1:06PM CDT 09/24/14 by Joel Karlin | Post a Comment
Comments (5)
why the hell is the drought in china not covered in ag news them people will need our grain guess they will get it cheaper than it cost to grow thanks you great market know it alls like shooting tomahawks at american ag
Posted by andrew mohlman at 9:58PM CDT 09/24/14
Andrew, I'll give you one thing...it is sure fun to read your ramblings. You are certifiable 100% bat$hit crazy, either by eating too many lead paint chips as a child or currently drinking WAYYYYY too much cough syrup, but you are a trip to read, unlike that Jay Cliché. She is just flat out boring/dull.
Posted by Brandon Butler at 4:37PM CDT 09/25/14
Dryness in China is regional. It has indeed been dry in the north central but has not been a widespread event in major corn areas.
Posted by Bryce Anderson at 3:09AM CDT 09/29/14
must of been another small region where the corn was poor the record talk is not usually reality I am sure china would like cheap grain
Posted by andrew mohlman at 4:03AM CDT 09/30/14
For the last year you guys have been saying even though it has been cold here, the rest of the world is burning up. Now the rest of the world has a record crop too. Looks like globle warming isn't that bad after all.
Posted by FRANK FULWIDER at 10:30AM CDT 10/01/14
 

Tuesday 09/23/14

Can Corn Futures Fall Below $3.00?
The current stocks to use ratio is one of the highest since the fall of 2006 and if it goes higher may allow futures to recede below long-term support of $3.00 per bushel.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 10:25AM CDT 09/23/14 by Joel Karlin | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Monday 09/22/14

Depressed Corn Price Volatility
Dramatic decline in corn volatility as expressed in average net change per day in cents and percent monthly change from high to low.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 10:46AM CDT 09/22/14 by Joel Karlin | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Wednesday 09/17/14

USDA September Soybean Yield Estimate
This graphic shows the number of soybean pods per an 18 square foot plot for the ten objective states used for the September report, the number of pods as a percent of the September 2004-2013 average, and the ten year average percent change in the number of pods from the September to the final crop report for each of the top ten states.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 9:58AM CDT 09/17/14 by Joel Karlin | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Monday 09/15/14

July, August Rain Distribution
July and August 2014 rainfall in the top 21 corn and soybean producing states as a percent of the long-term average.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 8:41AM CDT 09/15/14 by Joel Karlin | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Friday 09/12/14

Implied corn ear weights
Implied corn ear weights for the seven top growing states that have issued corn plant and ear population data continuously since 2000.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 7:26AM CDT 09/12/14 by Joel Karlin | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Wednesday 09/10/14

Corn Crop Conditions
This piece looks at the usual seasonal change in corn crop conditions and the pattern of the record yielding seasons.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 8:25AM CDT 09/10/14 by Joel Karlin | Post a Comment
Comments (1)
We have around 4 billion bushels of corn production; 28% of projected US production, that has not yet dented. These calculations are from the September 7, 2014 crop progress report and the August Wasde. It looks something like 3 billion bushels or 22% of US production has not dented and is in the way of this cold spell. A corn plant that dies prior to dent does not produce usable grain. The text books indicate the corn plant has been known to "shut down" when subjected to prolong periods of cool weather. So even without a frost corn can die without enough heat to keep cells functioning. This appears to be variety specific. The weather forecast, here and many other areas, seems to indicate it will take a week to accumulate the growing degree days that are common, in one day, this time of year. This weather might be a bigger deal than the market believes. Time will tell. Freeport, IL
Posted by Freeport IL at 9:05AM CDT 09/11/14
 

Friday 08/29/14

Labor Day Corn Crop Ratings
Assuming crop conditions stay at least steady the last week of August, which seems reasonable given excellent rainfall and continued moderate temperatures, that rating would be the highest as of September 1st since 1994.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 7:13AM CDT 08/29/14 by Joel Karlin | Post a Comment
Comments (1)
rasing conditions this late is crazy if true lot of late corn that wont make it.
Posted by andrew mohlman at 3:38PM CDT 08/29/14
 

Wednesday 08/27/14

IL July Temps vs. Corn Ear Weights
A scatterplot showing the implied ear weight of Illinois corn vs. average July temperature in degrees Fahrenheit.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 8:46AM CDT 08/27/14 by Joel Karlin | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Monday 08/25/14

Change in Soybean Crop Conditions vs. Yield Revisions
A scatterplot of the percent change in soybean crop conditions from Aug 1 to Oct 1 vs. percent change in USDA soybean yield from August to final report.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 9:54AM CDT 08/25/14 by Joel Karlin | Post a Comment
Comments (1)
Where does the sds come in to play in this market?
Posted by Michael Graves at 9:46PM CDT 08/27/14
 

Friday 08/22/14

July 2014 Precipitation in Top Corn States
July 2014 precipitation in inches for the top 18 corn producing states for July 2014, how each states rain totals were as a percent of the 1950-2013 average and the percentile rank of July 2014 precipitation using the 1950-2014 range.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 7:54AM CDT 08/22/14 by Joel Karlin | Post a Comment
Comments (2)
looking at brown leaves and barren stalks I can tell you for sure it is a fact you are totally wrong. Same old song and dance how great the corn is gets old. crop tour just as well been done from there desk. consumers should pay for cost of production not gov uncle sam will never get out of hole. media must be in market
Posted by andrew mohlman at 8:30AM CDT 08/22/14
I have to agree.Don't know what part of Michigan you looked at, but we are 4.25 in. below normal and no rain in July.Creeks have been dry since June, last good rain we had was June 25th. Tell me why pro farmer crop tour followed the same path across cornbelt as the rain did?
Posted by Raymond Simpkins at 10:34AM CDT 08/26/14
 

Thursday 08/21/14

July 2014 Readings in Top Corn States
This graphic shows those readings and the 1950-2013 average on the left hand axis while the right hand axis shows the July percentile ranking using the 1950-2014 data.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 8:20AM CDT 08/21/14 | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Thursday 08/07/14

August 1st Soybean Ratings
This graphic shows the condition of each of the top 18 states as of August 1st, the average of August 1 conditions for each of the top states using 1986-2013 data, and what percentile this year's August 1 rating is in relation to the 1986-2014 data.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 9:18AM CDT 08/07/14 | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Wednesday 08/06/14

August 1st Corn Ratings
This graphic shows the condition of each of the top 18 states as of August 1st, the average of August 1 conditions for each of the top states using 1986-2013 data, and what percentile this year's August 1 rating is in relation to the 1986-2014 data.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 10:18AM CDT 08/06/14 | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Friday 08/01/14

USDA August Soybean Yield Estimates
This graphic shows national soybean crop ratings as of July 27th vs. the percent that the USDA's August soybean yield estimate deviated from the 1986-2013 trend of USDA August soybean yield estimates.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 7:42AM CDT 08/01/14 | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
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Recent Blog Posts
  • Corn Prices Pressured by Record Yields
  • Can Corn Futures Fall Below $3.00?
  • Depressed Corn Price Volatility
  • USDA September Soybean Yield Estimate
  • July, August Rain Distribution
  • Implied corn ear weights
  • Corn Crop Conditions
  • Labor Day Corn Crop Ratings
  • IL July Temps vs. Corn Ear Weights
  • Change in Soybean Crop Conditions vs. Yield Revisions
  • July 2014 Precipitation in Top Corn States
  • July 2014 Readings in Top Corn States
  • August 1st Soybean Ratings
  • August 1st Corn Ratings
  • USDA August Soybean Yield Estimates
  • New Crop Soybean Meal Sales
  • MN Corn Ear/Plant Ratio
  • 7/20 Corn Conditions vs. August Yield Estimates
  • IL July Temps vs. Corn Ear Weight
  • Nov Bean/Dec Corn Price Ratio